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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Estrela

S T S U T

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 16%

10%

22%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

60%

22%

Both score Ø 36%

50%

22%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,95 xG 0,52

51% Possession 49%

17 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 17. · Nacional 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+32	+23.9	30
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+23	+15.8	27
3	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	+11.8	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
5	Guimaraes	10	5	3	2	+2	+2.2	18
6	Santa Clara	10	6	0	4	+1	+6.6	18
7	Famalicao	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.6	17
8	Moreirense	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.7	17
9	Casa Pia	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.4	13
10	Rio Ave	11	3	3	5	-10	-8.9	12
11	Gil Vicente	11	2	4	5	-5	-4.5	10
12	Estoril	11	2	4	5	-8	-11.8	10
13	AVS	11	2	4	5	-10	-4.7	10
14	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-8	-1.2	9
15	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	-0.5	8
16	Arouca	11	2	2	7	-13	-10.4	8
17	Estrela	10	1	3	6	-12	-9.0	6
18	Farense	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
2	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+16	+9.0	15
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Moreirense	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.1	11
6	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.2	10
7	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.4	10
8	Rio Ave	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.8	9
9	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
10	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
11	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
12	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-2	-6.8	8
13	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
14	Nacional	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.4	6
15	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
16	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
17	Farense	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.3	3
18	Boavista	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	+0.4	10
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	+1.3	9
4	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
5	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
6	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.4	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
8	Santa Clara	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.6	6
9	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-3	+3.6	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Rio Ave	6	1	0	5	-12	-11.7	3
13	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
14	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
15	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
16	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
17	Gil Vicente	6	0	2	4	-9	-6.0	2
18	Estrela	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.