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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Toulouse

S U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Montpellier

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

32%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

58%

52%

Both score Ø 57%

61%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,28 xG 0,47

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Montpellier 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	20	10	1	+47	+27.5	70
2	Monaco	31	17	7	7	+17	+8.6	58
3	Brest	31	16	8	7	+16	+8.7	56
4	Lille	31	15	10	6	+18	+13.3	55
5	Nice	31	14	9	8	+11	+13.3	51
6	Lens	31	13	7	11	+6	+2.0	46
7	Marseille	31	11	11	9	+9	+18.4	44
8	Lyon	31	13	5	13	-9	-5.0	44
9	Rennes	31	11	9	11	+7	+9.4	42
10	Toulouse	31	10	10	11	-2	-7.1	40
11	Reims	31	11	7	13	-7	-0.1	40
12	Montpellier	31	9	11	11	-4	+1.8	38
13	Strasbourg	31	9	9	13	-10	-2.2	36
14	Nantes	31	9	5	17	-20	-15.3	32
15	Le Havre	31	6	11	14	-11	-13.1	29
16	Metz	31	8	5	18	-19	-18.8	29
17	Lorient	31	6	8	17	-24	-18.1	26
18	Clermont	31	5	10	16	-25	-23.3	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	15	11	3	1	+21	+17.8	36
2	Paris SG	16	9	6	1	+22	+19.8	33
3	Marseille	16	9	6	1	+16	+16.3	33
4	Brest	15	8	5	2	+11	+13.1	29
5	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
6	Monaco	15	8	3	4	+9	+9.0	27
7	Lens	15	8	3	4	+7	+6.1	27
8	Rennes	16	7	3	6	+8	+12.4	24
9	Lyon	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.6	22
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Strasbourg	16	6	3	7	-2	+2.0	21
12	Montpellier	16	3	9	4	-1	+7.7	18
13	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-2	+2.2	17
14	Toulouse	15	3	7	5	+0	+4.0	16
15	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-12	-6.2	14
16	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-9	-6.3	13
17	Metz	15	3	3	9	-7	-2.3	12
18	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	16	9	4	3	+8	-0.4	31
3	Brest	16	8	3	5	+5	-4.4	27
4	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	-2	-11.1	24
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+1	+3.5	23
6	Lyon	15	7	1	7	-4	-6.6	22
7	Montpellier	15	6	2	7	-3	-5.9	20
8	Nantes	15	6	2	7	-8	-7.6	20
9	Lens	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.1	19
10	Lille	16	4	7	5	-3	-4.4	19
11	Reims	16	5	4	7	-6	-4.5	19
12	Rennes	15	4	6	5	-1	-3.0	18
13	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
14	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-8	-4.2	15
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-15	-11.8	13
16	Le Havre	16	1	9	6	-9	-15.3	12
17	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-13	-17.1	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.