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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Nice

T S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Metz

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

17%

44%

Both score Ø 36%

28%

44%

Average goals

1,7

2,4

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,21 xG 0,09

66% Possession 34%

15 Shots 2

9 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 2. · Metz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	13	4	1	+30	+17.9	43
2	Nice	18	10	5	3	+8	+7.8	35
3	Brest	18	10	4	4	+12	+6.7	34
4	Monaco	18	10	3	5	+9	+5.8	33
5	Lille	18	8	7	3	+10	+8.7	31
6	Reims	18	9	2	7	+1	+3.5	29
7	Marseille	18	7	7	4	+7	+13.6	28
8	Lens	18	7	5	6	+2	+1.7	26
9	Rennes	19	6	7	6	+4	+7.3	25
10	Strasbourg	18	6	6	6	-4	-2.8	24
11	Le Havre	18	5	7	6	-1	-6.7	22
12	Montpellier	18	4	7	7	-4	+0.1	19
13	Nantes	18	5	3	10	-10	-7.7	18
14	Toulouse	18	3	8	7	-7	-10.4	17
15	Metz	18	4	4	10	-12	-12.6	16
16	Lyon	19	4	4	11	-14	-6.3	16
17	Clermont	18	3	5	10	-14	-13.5	14
18	Lorient	18	2	6	10	-17	-13.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	1	1	+17	+10.2	22
2	Marseille	9	6	3	0	+12	+10.4	21
3	Nice	9	6	3	0	+9	+6.2	21
4	Lille	9	6	2	1	+10	+9.6	20
5	Brest	9	5	3	1	+10	+9.7	18
6	Monaco	9	6	0	3	+8	+4.3	18
7	Lens	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.3	17
8	Rennes	10	4	3	3	+6	+7.7	15
9	Strasbourg	9	4	3	2	+3	+2.1	15
10	Reims	8	5	0	3	+1	+4.5	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	10	3	3	4	+0	-0.7	12
13	Montpellier	9	1	6	2	-1	+4.3	9
14	Lorient	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Lyon	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	8	1	5	2	+1	-0.5	8
17	Metz	9	1	3	5	-3	-1.8	6
18	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-9	-5.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+13	+7.7	21
2	Brest	9	5	1	3	+2	-3.0	16
3	Monaco	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.5	15
4	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
5	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.6	14
6	Lille	9	2	5	2	+0	-0.9	11
7	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
8	Montpellier	9	3	1	5	-3	-4.2	10
9	Metz	9	3	1	5	-9	-10.8	10
10	Lens	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.6	9
11	Clermont	9	2	3	4	-5	-8.0	9
12	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-7	-4.9	9
13	Toulouse	10	2	3	5	-8	-10.0	9
14	Le Havre	9	1	5	3	-4	-10.3	8
15	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	8	2	0	6	-10	-7.0	6
18	Lorient	9	0	3	6	-14	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.