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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Metz

U S S T T

0–1

Full-time

Montpellier

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

20%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 44%

47%

40%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,84 xG 0,51

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 3

11 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 12. · Montpellier 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	3	1	+26	+16.0	36
2	Nice	16	9	5	2	+8	+7.2	32
3	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+10	+5.6	30
4	Brest	16	8	4	4	+6	+2.2	28
5	Lille	15	7	6	2	+8	+6.6	27
6	Lens	16	7	5	4	+6	+3.4	26
7	Marseille	15	6	5	4	+6	+10.8	23
8	Reims	16	7	2	7	-2	+2.3	23
9	Le Havre	16	4	7	5	-2	-6.3	19
10	Nantes	16	5	3	8	-8	-7.4	18
11	Strasbourg	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.9	17
12	Metz	15	4	4	7	-8	-10.4	16
13	Rennes	15	3	6	6	-1	+4.2	15
14	Montpellier	15	3	6	6	-3	+3.9	15
15	Toulouse	15	2	7	6	-7	-10.4	13
16	Lyon	16	3	4	9	-12	-7.2	13
17	Lorient	15	2	6	7	-9	-9.2	12
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-12	-8.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	1	1	+15	+8.0	19
2	Monaco	8	6	0	2	+10	+4.7	18
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+7	+4.2	18
4	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.0	17
5	Lens	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.0	17
6	Lille	7	5	1	1	+7	+7.4	16
7	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+4	+6.3	12
8	Brest	7	3	3	1	+4	+5.2	12
9	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.0	12
10	Nantes	9	3	3	3	+1	-1.6	12
11	Reims	7	4	0	3	+0	+3.7	12
12	Le Havre	8	3	2	3	+1	+3.2	11
13	Lorient	8	2	3	3	-2	-4.5	9
14	Montpellier	8	1	5	2	-1	+4.8	8
15	Toulouse	6	1	4	1	+2	-0.2	7
16	Metz	7	1	3	3	-1	-1.9	6
17	Lyon	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
18	Clermont	8	1	2	5	-7	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.0	17
2	Brest	9	5	1	3	+2	-3.0	16
3	Nice	8	4	2	2	+1	+3.0	14
4	Monaco	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.9	12
5	Lille	8	2	5	1	+1	-0.8	11
6	Reims	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.4	11
7	Metz	8	3	1	4	-7	-8.5	10
8	Lens	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.6	9
9	Le Havre	8	1	5	2	-3	-9.5	8
10	Montpellier	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.9	7
11	Lyon	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.0	7
12	Marseille	8	1	3	4	-5	+2.8	6
13	Clermont	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.9	6
14	Nantes	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.8	6
15	Toulouse	9	1	3	5	-9	-10.2	6
16	Strasbourg	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.9	5
17	Rennes	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.1	3
18	Lorient	7	0	3	4	-7	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.