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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Paris SG

U S S U U

3–1

Full-time

Metz

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

69%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

69%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,4

Scored

2,4

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,37 xG 0,14

75% Possession 25%

13 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

5 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Metz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	4	1	+26	+16.0	37
2	Nice	16	9	5	2	+8	+7.2	32
3	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+10	+5.6	30
4	Lille	16	7	7	2	+8	+6.6	28
5	Brest	16	8	4	4	+6	+2.2	28
6	Marseille	16	7	5	4	+7	+13.0	26
7	Lens	16	7	5	4	+6	+3.4	26
8	Reims	16	7	2	7	-2	+2.3	23
9	Strasbourg	16	5	5	6	-5	-2.7	20
10	Le Havre	16	4	7	5	-2	-6.3	19
11	Montpellier	16	4	6	6	-2	+3.5	18
12	Nantes	16	5	3	8	-8	-7.4	18
13	Rennes	16	3	7	6	-1	+4.0	16
14	Metz	16	4	4	8	-9	-10.1	16
15	Toulouse	16	2	8	6	-7	-10.1	14
16	Lyon	16	3	4	9	-12	-7.2	13
17	Lorient	16	2	6	8	-10	-9.3	12
18	Clermont	16	2	5	9	-13	-10.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.2	20
2	Paris SG	8	6	1	1	+15	+8.0	19
3	Monaco	8	6	0	2	+10	+4.7	18
4	Nice	8	5	3	0	+7	+4.2	18
5	Lens	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.0	17
6	Lille	8	5	2	1	+7	+7.4	17
7	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+4	+6.3	12
8	Brest	7	3	3	1	+4	+5.2	12
9	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.0	12
10	Nantes	9	3	3	3	+1	-1.6	12
11	Reims	7	4	0	3	+0	+3.7	12
12	Le Havre	8	3	2	3	+1	+3.2	11
13	Lorient	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
14	Toulouse	7	1	5	1	+2	+0.1	8
15	Montpellier	8	1	5	2	-1	+4.8	8
16	Metz	8	1	3	4	-2	-1.6	6
17	Lyon	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
18	Clermont	8	1	2	5	-7	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+11	+8.0	18
2	Brest	9	5	1	3	+2	-3.0	16
3	Nice	8	4	2	2	+1	+3.0	14
4	Monaco	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.9	12
5	Lille	8	2	5	1	+1	-0.8	11
6	Reims	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.4	11
7	Montpellier	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.2	10
8	Metz	8	3	1	4	-7	-8.5	10
9	Lens	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.6	9
10	Le Havre	8	1	5	2	-3	-9.5	8
11	Strasbourg	8	2	2	4	-7	-4.8	8
12	Lyon	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.0	7
13	Marseille	8	1	3	4	-5	+2.8	6
14	Clermont	8	1	3	4	-6	-7.1	6
15	Nantes	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.8	6
16	Toulouse	9	1	3	5	-9	-10.2	6
17	Rennes	7	0	4	3	-5	-2.3	4
18	Lorient	7	0	3	4	-7	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.