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Ligue 1
Referee: J Hamel
Metz
U S S T U
1–1
Full-time
Nice
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 18/17 matches
Win Ø 34%
33%
35%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
22%
59%
Both score Ø 49%
44%
53%
Average goals
2,0
2,6
Scored
1,1
1,2
Conceded
0,9
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%
16 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 2
4 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Metz 11. · Nice 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lyon 18 11 6 1 +21 39
2 Paris SG 18 11 3 4 +29 36
3 Lille 18 10 6 2 +18 36
4 Rennes 18 9 5 4 +7 32
5 Marseille 16 9 4 3 +9 31
6 Monaco 18 9 3 6 +6 30
7 Angers 18 9 3 6 -2 30
8 Lens 17 8 3 6 +1 27
9 Montpellier 18 8 3 7 -1 27
10 Brest 18 8 2 8 -1 26
11 Metz 18 6 6 6 +2 24
12 Bordeaux 18 6 5 7 -2 23
13 Nice 17 6 4 7 -3 22
14 St Etienne 18 4 7 7 -7 19
15 Reims 18 4 6 8 -4 18
16 Strasbourg 18 5 2 11 -5 17
17 Nantes 18 3 7 8 -12 16
18 Dijon 18 2 7 9 -14 13
19 Lorient 18 3 3 12 -17 12
20 Nimes 18 3 3 12 -25 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Metz Nice
15′
ℹ️ Amine Gouiri
VAR: Goal cancelled
Boubakar Kouyate 🟨
17′
18′
A. Gouiri 0–1
Youssef Maziz 🟨
36′
Half-time 0–1
66′
🔁 K. Dolberg
↦ Rony Lopes
66′
🔁 J. Lotomba
↦ Y. Atal
67′
🟨 Stanley N'Soki
P. Sarr 🔁
↦ Y. Maziz
69′
P. Yade 🔁
↦ M. Gueye
70′
T. Ambrose 🔁
↦ A. Leya
70′
76′
🟨 Hicham Boudaoui
1–1 J. Boye
79′
88′
🔁 D. Ndoye
↦ A. Gouiri
89′
🔁 A. Claude Maurice
↦ H. Boudaoui
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Metz

5-4-1
16 A. Oukidja G
21 J. Boye D
17 T. Delaine D
2 D. Bronn D
18 F. Centonze D
23 B. Kouyaté D
5 V. Angban M
19 H. Maïga M
22 Y. Maziz M
24 A. Leya F
13 M. Gueye M
Bench (9)
15 P. Sarr
26 P. Yade
9 T. Ambrose
20 E. Boahene
12 W. Tchimbembé
27 Vágner
30 M. Caillard
6 M. Fofana
8 B. Traoré

Coach: F. Antonetti

Nice

3-1-4-2
40 W. Benítez G
2 S. N'Soki D
20 Y. Atal M
5 F. Daniliuc D
18 W. Saliba D
13 H. Kamara M
29 J. Reine-Adélaïde M
19 K. Thuram-Ulien M
28 H. Boudaoui M
22 Rony Lopes F
11 A. Gouiri F
Bench (9)
9 K. Dolberg
23 J. Lotomba
14 D. Ndoye
10 A. Claude Maurice
30 Y. Cardinale
24 A. Pelmard
33 H. Mahou
12 R. Coly
27 A. Trouillet

Coach: A. Ursea

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,60
U ✓
3,16
B
2,87
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,23
U2,5 ✓
1,66
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Hamel · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.