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Ligue 1
Referee: B Millot
Marseille
U T U S U
1–1
Full-time
Lyon
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,2
2,5
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 25/26 matches
Win Ø 51%
40%
62%
Points per game
1,5
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
44%
65%
Both score Ø 63%
64%
62%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,3
2,1
Conceded
1,2
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%
12 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 2
0 Offside 7
13 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Marseille 8. · Lyon 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lille 27 17 8 2 +30 59
2 Paris SG 27 18 3 6 +44 57
3 Lyon 26 16 7 3 +30 55
4 Monaco 27 17 4 6 +19 55
5 Metz 27 11 8 8 +7 41
6 Lens 27 11 8 8 +2 41
7 Montpellier 27 11 6 10 -3 39
8 Marseille 25 10 8 7 +4 38
9 Rennes 26 10 8 8 +3 38
10 Angers 27 10 6 11 -10 36
11 Bordeaux 27 9 6 12 -5 33
12 Nice 27 9 5 13 -6 32
13 Reims 27 7 10 10 -2 31
14 Brest 27 9 4 14 -10 31
15 Strasbourg 27 8 6 13 -6 30
16 St Etienne 27 7 9 11 -12 30
17 Lorient 27 7 5 15 -18 26
18 Nimes 27 7 4 16 -26 25
19 Nantes 27 4 12 11 -15 24
20 Dijon 27 2 9 16 -26 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lyon
21′
K. Toko Ekambi 0–1
Lucas Paquetá
42′
🟨 Lucas Paquetá
1–1 A. Milik
44′
Half-time 1–1
Boubacar Kamara 🟨
64′
66′
🔁 M. Cherki
↦ K. Toko Ekambi
70′
🟨 Lucas Paquetá
70′
🟥 Lucas Paquetá
M. Cuisance 🔁
↦ S. Khaoui
72′
73′
🔁 Bruno Guimarães
↦ H. Aouar
73′
🔁 M. De Sciglio
↦ M. Cornet
Dimitri Payet 🟨
78′
78′
🟨 Thiago Mendes
Álvaro González 🟨
81′
81′
🟨 Memphis Depay
87′
🔁 I. Slimani
↦ T. Kadewere
87′
🔁 S. Diomande
↦ L. Dubois
Pape Gueye 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
30 S. Mandanda G
25 Y. Nagatomo D
3 Álvaro González D
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
29 Pol Lirola D
4 B. Kamara M
10 D. Payet M
26 F. Thauvin M
24 S. Khaoui M
22 P. Gueye M
19 A. Milik F
Bench (9)
17 M. Cuisance
20 C. Rocchia
16 Y. Pelé
5 L. Balerdi
32 L. Perrin
11 Luis Henrique
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
28 V. Germain
8 O. Ntcham

Coach: N. Larguet

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Anthony Lopes G
6 Marcelo D
14 L. Dubois D
5 J. Denayer D
23 Thiago Mendes M
8 H. Aouar M
12 Lucas Paquetá M
10 M. Depay F
7 K. Toko Ekambi F
27 M. Cornet D
11 T. Kadewere F
Bench (9)
18 M. Cherki
39 Bruno Guimarães
22 M. De Sciglio
20 I. Slimani
2 S. Diomande
25 M. Caqueret
26 M. Bard
30 J. Pollersbeck
3 D. Benlamri

Coach: R. Garcia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,71
U ✓
4,06
B
1,69
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,69
U2,5 ✓
2,18
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Millot · 146 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.