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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Benfica

S T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 54%

82%

25%

Points per game

2,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

64%

32%

Both score Ø 34%

32%

36%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Estoril 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	23	2	3	+51	71
2	Porto	29	22	4	3	+43	70
3	Sp Braga	29	22	2	5	+38	68
4	Sp Lisbon	28	18	4	6	+30	58
5	Arouca	28	12	9	7	-1	45
6	Famalicao	29	13	3	13	-4	42
7	Guimaraes	28	12	5	11	-6	41
8	Vizela	28	11	6	11	+3	39
9	Casa Pia	29	11	6	12	-6	39
10	Boavista	29	10	7	12	-12	37
11	Chaves	28	9	9	10	-5	36
12	Rio Ave	29	9	8	12	-5	35
13	Portimonense	29	10	3	16	-13	33
14	Gil Vicente	29	8	7	14	-8	31
15	Estoril	28	7	4	17	-21	25
16	Maritimo	29	6	4	19	-28	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	29	4	5	20	-30	17
18	Santa Clara	28	3	6	19	-26	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	1	1	+31	37
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+28	36
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+28	34
4	Sp Braga	14	10	2	2	+21	32
5	Famalicao	15	9	1	5	+5	28
6	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+4	27
7	Arouca	14	8	2	4	+4	26
8	Boavista	15	7	5	3	+1	26
9	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+4	23
10	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	+1	21
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Vizela	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+0	18
14	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-2	17
16	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	2	2	11	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	15	12	0	3	+17	36
2	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+20	34
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	14	7	3	4	+2	24
5	Vizela	14	6	3	5	+2	21
6	Chaves	14	5	4	5	-4	19
7	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-5	19
8	Casa Pia	14	5	3	6	-7	18
9	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
10	Guimaraes	14	4	2	8	-10	14
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	1	10	-8	13
12	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-9	12
13	Portimonense	14	4	0	10	-12	12
14	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-10	11
15	Boavista	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Santa Clara	14	1	2	11	-13	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.