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Eredivisie
Referee: A Lindhout
AZ Alkmaar
U T T S S
3–0
Full-time
Waalwijk
T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,3
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 47%
59%
34%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
59%
66%
Both score Ø 66%
66%
66%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%
16 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 0
4 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 6
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Waalwijk 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 30 22 7 1 +45 73
2 PSV Eindhoven 30 20 5 5 +46 65
3 Ajax 30 18 8 4 +47 62
4 AZ Alkmaar 29 17 6 6 +24 57
5 Sparta Rotterdam 26 15 6 5 +22 51
6 Twente 26 14 7 5 +26 49
7 Utrecht 28 10 9 9 -4 39
8 Waalwijk 29 10 8 11 -3 38
9 Go Ahead Eagles 30 9 9 12 -8 36
10 Nijmegen 29 7 14 8 +4 35
11 Heerenveen 28 9 7 12 -10 34
12 For Sittard 30 9 5 16 -21 32
13 Vitesse 30 7 10 13 -12 31
14 Volendam 30 8 6 16 -25 30
15 FC Emmen 30 6 10 14 -22 28
16 Excelsior 30 8 4 18 -39 28
17 Groningen 29 4 5 20 -31 17
18 Cambuur 30 4 4 22 -39 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk
1–0 S. Mijnans
Y. Sugawara
8′
M. Meerdink 🔁
↦ J. Odgaard
20′
Half-time 1–0
D. Mihailovic 🔁
↦ M. Meerdink
46′
2–0 M. Lahdo
S. Mijnans
50′
3–0 M. van Brederode
63′
65′
🔁 F. Jozefzoon
↦ P. Clement
65′
🔁 Julen Lobete
↦ J. Lelieveld
R. Bazoer 🔁
↦ J. Clasie
68′
Z. Buurmeester 🔁
↦ S. Mijnans
80′
M. de Wit 🔁
↦ M. Lahdo
80′
81′
🔁 S. Augustijns
↦ V. Anita
81′
🔁 C. Lokesa
↦ Y. Oukili
86′
🔁 R. Kuijpers
↦ M. Seuntjens
92′
🟨 Dario Van Den Buijs
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
31 S. Beukema D
3 P. Hatzidiakos D
5 M. Kerkez D
6 T. Reijnders M
16 S. Mijnans M
8 J. Clasie M
23 M. Lahdo F
7 J. Odgaard F
19 M. van Brederode F
Bench (9)
35 M. Meerdink
14 D. Mihailovic
25 R. Bazoer
28 Z. Buurmeester
34 M. de Wit
22 M. Dekker
12 H. Verhulst
27 Z. Vanheusden
54 D. Deen

Coach: P. Jansen

Waalwijk

5-3-2
21 Joel Pereira G
2 J. Lelieveld D
23 J. Gaari D
24 D. Van den Buijs D
4 S. Adewoye D
22 S. Bakari D
14 P. Clement M
6 V. Anita M
33 Y. Oukili M
20 M. Seuntjens F
29 M. Kramer F
Bench (12)
10 F. Jozefzoon
7 Julen Lobete
26 S. Augustijns
37 C. Lokesa
17 R. Kuijpers
13 M. Spenkelink
5 T. Lutonda
19 Z. Bakkali
8 P. Vroegh
31 J. Kesting
9 M. Biereth
15 L. Nieuwpoort

Coach: J. Oosting

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,34
U
5,23
B
8,35
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,53
U2,5
2,46
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Lindhout · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.