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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lyon

U U U S S

2–1

Full-time

Marseille

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 45%

38%

52%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

48%

29%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 10. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	16	5	1	+28	53
2	Nice	22	13	4	5	+18	43
3	Marseille	21	11	7	3	+14	40
4	Strasbourg	22	10	5	7	+15	35
5	Rennes	22	10	4	8	+20	34
6	Montpellier	22	10	4	8	+7	34
7	Monaco	22	9	6	7	+9	33
8	Lens	22	9	6	7	+5	33
9	Nantes	22	9	5	8	+3	32
10	Lyon	21	8	8	5	+2	32
11	Lille	22	8	8	6	+0	32
12	Angers	22	7	8	7	-1	29
13	Brest	22	7	7	8	-5	28
14	Reims	22	5	9	8	-5	24
15	Clermont	22	5	6	11	-17	21
16	Troyes	22	5	5	12	-11	20
17	Bordeaux	22	4	8	10	-19	20
18	Metz	22	4	7	11	-19	19
19	Lorient	22	3	8	11	-20	17
20	St Etienne	22	3	6	13	-24	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Montpellier	12	7	2	3	+9	23
3	Rennes	11	7	1	3	+17	22
4	Monaco	11	6	3	2	+12	21
5	Strasbourg	11	6	2	3	+13	20
6	Lyon	11	5	5	1	+7	20
7	Nantes	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Lens	11	5	4	2	+8	19
9	Lille	10	5	4	1	+3	19
10	Nice	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	Marseille	11	4	5	2	+6	17
12	Angers	11	5	1	5	+0	16
13	Brest	11	4	3	4	-1	15
14	Lorient	10	3	4	3	-1	13
15	Clermont	11	3	4	4	-2	13
16	Reims	10	3	3	4	+0	12
17	Troyes	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Bordeaux	12	2	4	6	-5	10
19	Metz	11	1	4	6	-9	7
20	St Etienne	11	1	4	6	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	11	8	1	2	+15	25
2	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+8	23
3	Paris SG	11	6	4	1	+7	22
4	Strasbourg	11	4	3	4	+2	15
5	Lens	11	4	2	5	-3	14
6	Angers	11	2	7	2	-1	13
7	Lille	12	3	4	5	-3	13
8	Brest	11	3	4	4	-4	13
9	Rennes	11	3	3	5	+3	12
10	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-3	12
11	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Reims	12	2	6	4	-5	12
13	Lyon	10	3	3	4	-5	12
14	Metz	11	3	3	5	-10	12
15	Montpellier	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Troyes	11	3	1	7	-9	10
17	Bordeaux	10	2	4	4	-14	10
18	St Etienne	11	2	2	7	-12	8
19	Clermont	11	2	2	7	-15	8
20	Lorient	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.