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La Liga

Referee: José Sánchez

Barcelona

S S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 71%

79%

62%

Points per game

2,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

45%

38%

Both score Ø 35%

21%

48%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,18 xG 1,28

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	23	4	2	+44	+9.7	73
2	Real Madrid	30	20	5	5	+39	+17.6	65
3	Ath Madrid	29	18	6	5	+26	+12.0	60
4	Sociedad	30	16	6	8	+10	+3.3	54
5	Betis	30	14	6	10	+6	+3.3	48
6	Villarreal	29	14	5	10	+10	+3.9	47
7	Ath Bilbao	30	13	7	10	+12	+3.2	46
8	Osasuna	30	11	8	11	-4	-8.7	41
9	Vallecano	30	10	10	10	+0	-2.5	40
10	Girona	30	10	8	12	+1	-2.9	38
11	Mallorca	29	10	7	12	-4	-2.7	37
12	Celta	30	9	9	12	-6	+2.0	36
13	Sevilla	29	9	8	12	-9	+3.1	35
14	Valladolid	30	10	5	15	-22	-12.0	35
15	Cadiz	30	7	11	12	-19	-4.1	32
16	Getafe	29	7	10	12	-9	-2.9	31
17	Valencia	30	8	6	16	-4	-2.2	30
18	Almeria	30	8	6	16	-16	-6.8	30
19	Espanol	30	6	10	14	-14	-4.3	28
20	Elche	30	2	7	21	-41	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	11	3	0	+25	+5.9	36
2	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+24	+13.6	34
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	3	3	+16	+9.0	30
4	Sociedad	15	8	4	3	+6	+4.9	28
5	Girona	15	8	3	4	+8	+1.9	27
6	Betis	15	8	3	4	+7	+1.2	27
7	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+8	+4.9	26
8	Almeria	16	8	2	6	+3	-0.4	26
9	Osasuna	15	8	1	6	+0	-3.5	25
10	Ath Bilbao	15	7	3	5	+9	+0.3	24
11	Valladolid	15	7	3	5	+0	-0.6	24
12	Vallecano	15	6	5	4	+4	-0.9	23
13	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.1	22
14	Valencia	15	6	3	6	+6	+3.5	21
15	Celta	15	5	5	5	+4	+3.2	20
16	Getafe	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.5	20
17	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	+0	+9.0	19
18	Cadiz	15	4	6	5	-7	-1.7	18
19	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	+0.5	14
20	Elche	15	1	4	10	-16	+0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	1	2	+19	+3.8	37
2	Real Madrid	15	10	1	4	+15	+4.0	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	9	3	2	+10	+2.9	30
4	Sociedad	15	8	2	5	+4	-1.6	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	4	5	+3	+2.9	22
6	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	+2	-1.1	21
7	Betis	15	6	3	6	-1	+2.1	21
8	Vallecano	15	4	5	6	-4	-1.7	17
9	Osasuna	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.2	16
10	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.9	16
11	Celta	15	4	4	7	-10	-1.2	16
12	Mallorca	15	4	3	8	-7	-3.9	15
13	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	-4.8	14
14	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-12	-2.4	14
15	Girona	15	2	5	8	-7	-4.8	11
16	Getafe	14	2	5	7	-9	-1.4	11
17	Valladolid	15	3	2	10	-22	-11.3	11
18	Valencia	15	2	3	10	-10	-5.7	9
19	Elche	15	1	3	11	-25	-8.9	6
20	Almeria	14	0	4	10	-19	-6.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.