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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Toulouse

S T T S S

1–2

Full-time

Lyon

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 40%

37%

43%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

67%

53%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

63%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,26 xG 2,31

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Lyon 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	22	3	5	+41	+4.3	69
2	Lens	30	18	9	3	+28	+6.0	63
3	Marseille	30	18	7	5	+25	+2.5	61
4	Monaco	30	17	7	6	+21	+4.1	58
5	Lille	30	15	7	8	+16	+8.8	52
6	Rennes	30	15	5	10	+15	-1.3	50
7	Lyon	30	13	8	9	+14	+1.2	47
8	Reims	30	11	14	5	+11	+12.5	47
9	Nice	30	11	12	7	+10	+3.7	45
10	Lorient	30	12	9	9	+2	-3.8	45
11	Clermont	30	11	7	12	-10	-3.2	40
12	Toulouse	30	11	5	14	-6	+1.3	38
13	Montpellier	30	11	4	15	-4	+0.6	37
14	Nantes	30	6	13	11	-10	-3.1	31
15	Auxerre	30	7	8	15	-24	-0.4	29
16	Brest	30	6	10	14	-14	-9.7	28
17	Strasbourg	30	5	11	14	-14	-0.3	26
18	Troyes	30	4	9	17	-26	-12.3	21
19	Ajaccio	30	6	3	21	-34	-2.1	21
20	Angers	30	3	5	22	-41	-8.6	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	1	1	+20	+1.2	40
2	Paris SG	15	11	2	2	+16	+0.5	35
3	Rennes	15	11	0	4	+18	+0.7	33
4	Lille	15	9	4	2	+9	+6.8	31
5	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.2	26
6	Reims	15	7	5	3	+8	+9.7	26
7	Monaco	15	8	2	5	+7	-0.5	26
8	Marseille	15	7	4	4	+7	+0.6	25
9	Lorient	15	7	4	4	+6	+3.2	25
10	Toulouse	15	6	4	5	+2	+3.6	22
11	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	+1.5	21
12	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	+0	-0.1	20
13	Nantes	15	4	7	4	-2	+0.3	19
14	Clermont	15	5	3	7	-13	-0.8	18
15	Auxerre	14	4	5	5	-8	+1.9	17
16	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-4	+2.7	15
17	Brest	14	3	5	6	-6	-2.7	14
18	Troyes	15	1	9	5	-8	-6.4	12
19	Ajaccio	15	3	1	11	-16	+1.0	10
20	Angers	16	2	3	11	-15	-3.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	15	11	3	1	+18	+1.9	36
2	Paris SG	15	11	1	3	+25	+3.7	34
3	Monaco	15	9	5	1	+14	+4.6	32
4	Nice	15	6	6	3	+6	+2.2	24
5	Lens	15	5	8	2	+8	+4.7	23
6	Clermont	15	6	4	5	+3	-2.4	22
7	Lille	15	6	3	6	+7	+2.0	21
8	Lyon	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.0	21
9	Reims	15	4	9	2	+3	+2.8	21
10	Lorient	15	5	5	5	-4	-7.0	20
11	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-3	-2.0	17
12	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.7	17
13	Toulouse	15	5	1	9	-8	-2.3	16
14	Brest	16	3	5	8	-8	-7.0	14
15	Nantes	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.4	12
16	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-16	-2.4	12
17	Strasbourg	15	2	5	8	-10	-3.0	11
18	Ajaccio	15	3	2	10	-18	-3.1	11
19	Troyes	15	3	0	12	-18	-5.9	9
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-26	-4.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.