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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Marseille

S T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Ajaccio

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

78%

11%

Points per game

2,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

2,1

0,6

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

10 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Ajaccio 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+23	25
2	Marseille	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Lorient	9	7	1	1	+6	22
4	Lens	9	6	3	0	+10	21
5	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Rennes	9	4	3	2	+8	15
7	Lyon	10	4	2	4	+5	14
8	Lille	9	4	1	4	-1	13
9	Clermont	9	4	1	4	-2	13
10	Montpellier	9	4	0	5	+2	12
11	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Troyes	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Nice	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Auxerre	9	2	2	5	-11	8
15	Angers	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Nantes	9	1	4	4	-6	7
17	Reims	9	1	4	4	-7	7
18	Brest	9	1	3	5	-10	6
19	Strasbourg	9	0	5	4	-5	5
20	Ajaccio	9	1	1	7	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Lyon	6	4	1	1	+9	13
3	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Lorient	4	4	0	0	+5	12
5	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+7	9
7	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Toulouse	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	Monaco	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Lille	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Clermont	4	2	0	2	-4	6
12	Troyes	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Nantes	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Auxerre	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Angers	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Strasbourg	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Reims	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Brest	4	0	2	2	-8	2
19	Nice	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+18	15
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+1	10
5	Lille	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Clermont	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Nice	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Lens	4	1	3	0	+3	6
9	Rennes	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	Troyes	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Reims	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Brest	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	Toulouse	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Angers	4	1	1	2	-6	4
15	Montpellier	4	1	0	3	+1	3
16	Ajaccio	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-8	3
18	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Nantes	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.