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Ligue 1
Referee: A Gautier
Marseille
S S U T T
4–1
Full-time
Lorient
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lorient
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 8/9 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,1
Scored
1,8
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%
16 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 7. · Lorient 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 10 9 0 1 +14 27
2 Lens 10 5 3 2 +5 18
3 Nice 9 5 2 2 +12 17
4 Angers 10 4 4 2 +4 16
5 Lyon 10 4 4 2 +3 16
6 Rennes 10 4 3 3 +6 15
7 Marseille 8 4 2 2 +4 14
8 Strasbourg 10 4 2 4 +3 14
9 Nantes 10 4 2 4 +3 14
10 Monaco 10 4 2 4 +1 14
11 Lorient 9 3 5 1 +1 14
12 Lille 10 4 2 4 -2 14
13 Montpellier 10 3 4 3 +1 13
14 Clermont 10 3 4 3 -7 13
15 Reims 10 2 5 3 -1 11
16 Troyes 10 2 3 5 -5 9
17 Bordeaux 10 1 5 4 -9 8
18 Metz 10 1 3 6 -11 6
19 Brest 10 0 5 5 -8 5
20 St Etienne 10 0 4 6 -14 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lorient
13′
A. Laurienté 0–1
1–1 B. Kamara
M. Guendouzi
27′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 M. Guendouzi
D. Payet
56′
61′
🔁 Q. Boisgard
↦ E. Le Fée
69′
🔁 A. Grbić
↦ S. Diarra
C. Dieng 🔁
↦ K. De La Fuente
75′
P. Gueye 🔁
↦ Pol Lirola
76′
81′
🟨 Armand Lauriente
3–1 A. Milik
D. Payet
85′
86′
🔁 D. Faissal Ouattara
↦ A. Laurienté
L. Balerdi 🔁
↦ V. Rongier
88′
3–2 H. Mendes
own goal
92′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Marseille

3-2-4-1
16 Pau López G
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
14 Luan Peres D
29 Pol Lirola F
4 B. Kamara M
2 W. Saliba D
10 D. Payet M
21 V. Rongier M
6 M. Guendouzi M
9 A. Milik F
20 K. De La Fuente F
Bench (9)
12 C. Dieng
22 P. Gueye
5 L. Balerdi
11 Luis Henrique
8 Gerson
30 S. Mandanda
23 J. Amavi
3 Álvaro González
32 S. Ben Seghir

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Lorient

5-3-2
30 P. Nardi G
25 V. Le Goff D
15 J. Laporte D
2 Igor Silva D
17 H. Mendes D
3 M. Jenz D
23 T. Monconduit M
6 L. Abergel M
7 S. Diarra F
10 E. Le Fée M
28 A. Laurienté F
Bench (9)
11 Q. Boisgard
27 A. Grbić
38 D. Faissal Ouattara
20 S. Loric
14 J. Hergault
5 T. Fontaine
36 L. Pétrot
1 M. Dreyer
37 T. Le Bris

Coach: C. Pélissier

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,53
U
4,28
B
6,20
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,71
U2,5
2,15
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Gautier · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.