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Ligue 1
Referee: J Pignard
Lille
S T T S S
2–0
Full-time
Marseille
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 8/7 matches
Win Ø 48%
38%
57%
Points per game
1,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
75%
57%
Both score Ø 66%
75%
57%
Average goals
3,1
3,1
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
1,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 5
5 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Lille 12. · Marseille 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 9 8 0 1 +13 24
2 Lens 9 5 3 1 +6 18
3 Nice 8 5 2 1 +13 17
4 Angers 9 4 4 1 +5 16
5 Marseille 7 4 2 1 +6 14
6 Monaco 9 4 2 3 +3 14
7 Lorient 9 3 5 1 +1 14
8 Nantes 9 4 1 4 +3 13
9 Rennes 9 3 3 3 +3 12
10 Lyon 8 3 3 2 +1 12
11 Strasbourg 9 3 2 4 -1 11
12 Lille 8 3 2 3 -3 11
13 Montpellier 9 2 4 3 +0 10
14 Reims 9 2 4 3 -1 10
15 Clermont 9 2 4 3 -8 10
16 Bordeaux 9 1 4 4 -9 7
17 Troyes 9 1 3 5 -6 6
18 Metz 9 1 3 5 -8 6
19 Brest 9 0 4 5 -8 4
20 St Etienne 8 0 3 5 -10 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Marseille
Reinildo Isnard Mandava 🟨
11′
24′
🟨 Cengiz Ünder
1–0 J. David
28′
37′
🟨 Leonardo Balerdi
Half-time 1–0
G. Gudmundsson 🔁
↦ Reinildo
46′
46′
🔁 B. Kamara
↦ D. Ćaleta-Car
46′
🔁 A. Milik
↦ C. Dieng
62′
🔁 A. Harit
↦ Gerson
Burak Yılmaz 🟨
66′
Gabriel Gudmundsson ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
66′
Xeka 🔁
↦ A. Onana
72′
T. Weah 🔁
↦ J. Bamba
72′
77′
🟨 Cengiz Ünder
77′
🟥 Cengiz Ünder
81′
🔁 Luis Henrique
↦ Pol Lirola
Y. Yazıcı 🔁
↦ B. Yılmaz
88′
90′
🔁 P. Gueye
↦ L. Balerdi
Renato Sanches 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
94′
2–0 J. David
T. Weah
95′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Lille

4-4-2
1 I. Grbić G
6 José Fonte D
28 Reinildo D
2 Z. Çelik D
4 S. Botman D
21 B. André M
10 J. Ikoné M
24 A. Onana M
17 B. Yılmaz F
7 J. Bamba M
9 J. David F
Bench (9)
5 G. Gudmundsson
8 Xeka
22 T. Weah
11 Y. Yazıcı
18 Renato Sanches
3 Tiago Djaló
20 A. Gomes
26 J. Pied
16 A. Jakubech

Coach: J. Gourvennec

Marseille

4-2-3-1
16 Pau López G
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
14 Luan Peres D
29 Pol Lirola M
5 L. Balerdi D
2 W. Saliba D
21 V. Rongier M
8 Gerson M
17 C. Ünder M
6 M. Guendouzi M
12 C. Dieng F
Bench (9)
4 B. Kamara
9 A. Milik
7 A. Harit
11 Luis Henrique
22 P. Gueye
20 K. De La Fuente
30 S. Mandanda
3 Álvaro González
23 J. Amavi

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,47
U
3,29
B
2,97
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,08
U2,5 ✓
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Pignard · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.