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Ligue 1

Referee: M Lesage

Lille

T S U S U

2–2

Full-time

Nimes

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nimes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Nimes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	0	2	+13	21
2	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
3	Angers	9	5	1	3	+1	16
4	Bordeaux	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Lille	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Montpellier	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Nice	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	Marseille	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Rennes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Reims	8	3	2	3	+3	11
11	Amiens	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Brest	9	2	5	2	-3	11
13	Lyon	8	2	3	3	+6	9
14	Monaco	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-6	9
17	Nimes	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Dijon	9	2	2	5	-5	8
19	Metz	9	2	2	5	-6	8
20	St Etienne	8	2	2	4	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Angers	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Nantes	5	4	1	0	+4	13
3	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Lille	4	4	0	0	+7	12
5	Montpellier	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Brest	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Strasbourg	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Nice	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Amiens	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Nimes	4	2	0	2	+2	6
12	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Reims	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Dijon	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Lyon	4	1	1	2	+4	4
18	Metz	4	1	1	2	+0	4
19	Rennes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+4	10
2	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Marseille	5	2	2	1	+0	8
5	Reims	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	Nantes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Nice	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	St Etienne	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Metz	5	1	1	3	-6	4
12	Dijon	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Toulouse	5	0	3	2	-5	3
14	Angers	4	1	0	3	-9	3
15	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Lille	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Nimes	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Monaco	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Brest	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Strasbourg	4	0	1	3	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.