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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Roma

S S U S U

3–1

Full-time

Genoa

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,2

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

25%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

45%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,57 xG 0,50

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 10. · Genoa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	20	15	2	3	+20	+13.2	47
2	Inter	19	13	5	1	+31	+21.4	44
3	Atalanta	20	13	4	3	+23	+15.8	43
4	Lazio	20	11	3	6	+6	+9.0	36
5	Juventus	20	7	13	0	+15	+12.4	34
6	Fiorentina	19	9	5	5	+12	+8.1	32
7	Milan	19	8	7	4	+10	+13.1	31
8	Bologna	19	7	9	3	+4	+4.2	30
9	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-5	-7.3	26
10	Roma	20	6	6	8	+2	+0.8	24
11	Genoa	20	5	8	7	-10	-8.0	23
12	Torino	20	5	7	8	-5	-7.2	22
13	Empoli	20	4	8	8	-6	-9.4	20
14	Lecce	20	5	5	10	-18	-11.2	20
15	Parma	20	4	7	9	-10	-14.4	19
16	Como	20	4	7	9	-11	+1.6	19
17	Verona	20	6	1	13	-20	-13.7	19
18	Cagliari	20	4	6	10	-14	-8.8	18
19	Venezia	20	3	5	12	-15	-13.1	14
20	Monza	20	2	7	11	-9	-6.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+9	+10.6	24
2	Atalanta	9	7	1	1	+14	+8.1	22
3	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+8.7	21
4	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
5	Roma	10	6	0	4	+10	+5.8	18
6	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
7	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	+7.3	17
8	Juventus	10	3	7	0	+6	+8.5	16
9	Bologna	9	3	5	1	+4	+6.9	14
10	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
12	Como	9	3	3	3	-2	+2.2	12
13	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
14	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
15	Torino	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.5	10
16	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
17	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
18	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
19	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
2	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.6	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+9	+7.7	21
4	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+9	+3.9	18
5	Bologna	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.7	16
6	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+7	+0.7	15
7	Lazio	10	5	0	5	+1	+3.3	15
8	Milan	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.1	14
9	Genoa	9	4	2	3	-4	-3.9	14
10	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
11	Torino	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.6	12
12	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
13	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-4	-5.5	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	9	1	4	4	-3	-3.0	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	10	2	1	7	-10	-10.0	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.