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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Milan

S T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Inter

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 57%

43%

71%

Points per game

1,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

57%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

52%

48%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,6

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,60 xG 1,35

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 11

2 Offside 5

5 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Inter 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	22	17	2	3	+22	+14.9	53
2	Inter	21	15	5	1	+37	+23.9	50
3	Atalanta	23	14	5	4	+23	+18.3	47
4	Juventus	23	9	13	1	+19	+12.0	40
5	Fiorentina	22	11	6	5	+14	+7.6	39
6	Lazio	22	12	3	7	+8	+9.8	39
7	Bologna	22	9	10	3	+8	+6.4	37
8	Milan	21	9	7	5	+9	+13.7	34
9	Roma	22	8	6	8	+5	+3.8	30
10	Udinese	23	8	5	10	-8	-10.7	29
11	Torino	23	6	9	8	-3	-9.5	27
12	Genoa	23	6	8	9	-11	-5.9	26
13	Verona	23	7	2	14	-22	-12.1	23
14	Lecce	23	6	5	12	-23	-15.7	23
15	Como	23	5	7	11	-11	+1.2	22
16	Empoli	23	4	9	10	-11	-11.8	21
17	Cagliari	22	5	6	11	-13	-7.9	21
18	Parma	23	4	8	11	-13	-13.3	20
19	Venezia	23	3	7	13	-16	-14.2	16
20	Monza	23	2	7	14	-14	-10.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	0	2	+10	+12.2	27
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
3	Atalanta	11	7	2	2	+13	+10.4	23
4	Juventus	12	5	7	0	+11	+9.7	22
5	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
6	Fiorentina	11	6	3	2	+6	+7.5	21
7	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+4	+6.3	21
8	Milan	11	5	5	1	+10	+10.6	20
9	Bologna	11	5	5	1	+8	+9.1	20
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	-2	-5.1	17
11	Como	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.9	15
12	Torino	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.3	13
13	Lecce	11	3	4	4	-12	-2.3	13
14	Venezia	11	3	3	5	-2	-0.7	12
15	Parma	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.0	12
16	Genoa	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.9	12
17	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-7	-1.2	12
18	Verona	11	3	1	7	-14	-4.4	10
19	Empoli	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.5	8
20	Monza	12	1	3	8	-7	-4.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+24	+13.9	26
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
3	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+10	+7.9	24
4	Fiorentina	11	5	3	3	+8	+0.1	18
5	Juventus	11	4	6	1	+8	+2.3	18
6	Lazio	11	6	0	5	+4	+3.5	18
7	Bologna	11	4	5	2	+0	-2.7	17
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Torino	12	3	5	4	-2	-5.1	14
10	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-7	-4.0	14
11	Empoli	12	3	4	5	-4	-8.3	13
12	Verona	12	4	1	7	-8	-7.7	13
13	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-6	-5.5	12
14	Lecce	12	3	1	8	-11	-13.4	10
15	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
16	Roma	11	1	6	4	-7	-3.1	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-9	-10.4	8
18	Monza	11	1	4	6	-7	-6.4	7
19	Como	12	1	4	7	-11	-1.7	7
20	Venezia	12	0	4	8	-14	-13.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.