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Serie A

Referee: P Tremolada

Napoli

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,5

0,3

Conceded

0,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 19%

25%

13%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,9

0,4

Conceded

0,6

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,69 xG 0,61

65% Possession 35%

24 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

16 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Lecce 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	1	1	+10	+5.4	19
2	Inter	8	5	2	1	+8	+4.7	17
3	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+10	+7.0	16
4	Udinese	9	5	1	3	+1	-4.0	16
5	Milan	8	4	2	2	+7	+6.7	14
6	Torino	9	4	2	3	+1	-3.6	14
7	Fiorentina	8	3	4	1	+7	+4.2	13
8	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.9	13
9	Lazio	8	4	1	3	+2	+3.3	13
10	Roma	8	2	4	2	+2	+1.2	10
11	Empoli	8	2	4	2	+1	-4.0	10
12	Bologna	8	1	6	1	-2	-0.6	9
13	Verona	8	3	0	5	-3	-2.0	9
14	Como	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.0	9
15	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-1.7	9
16	Monza	8	1	4	3	-1	-4.1	7
17	Parma	8	1	4	3	-2	-1.6	7
18	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-10	-7.1	6
19	Lecce	8	1	2	5	-15	-5.5	5
20	Venezia	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	+4.7	12
2	Udinese	5	4	0	1	+4	-1.6	12
3	Milan	4	3	1	0	+8	+5.0	10
4	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.5	10
5	Inter	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.0	9
6	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.7	9
7	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.6	8
8	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
9	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.4	6
10	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	+0.5	6
11	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
12	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
13	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-5	+0.1	5
14	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
15	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
16	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-9	-3.0	4
17	Venezia	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
18	Empoli	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
19	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3
20	Monza	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.7	8
2	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
3	Empoli	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.7	7
4	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
5	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
6	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.2	7
7	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+5	+1.6	5
8	Monza	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.3	5
9	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	-1.3	5
10	Roma	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
11	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
13	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.3	4
14	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
15	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
16	Parma	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.6	3
17	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.2	3
18	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-5	-3.8	3
19	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.