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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Sp Lisbon

S S U S U

3–0

Full-time

Santa Clara

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Santa Clara

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

0,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 40%

67%

12%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

71%

48%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

72% Possession 28%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Santa Clara 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	25	22	2	1	+52	68
2	Porto	25	18	4	3	+38	58
3	Sp Braga	25	18	2	5	+32	56
4	Sp Lisbon	24	16	2	6	+26	50
5	Guimaraes	26	12	5	9	-4	41
6	Arouca	25	10	8	7	-3	38
7	Casa Pia	26	11	5	10	-4	38
8	Vizela	26	10	5	11	+2	35
9	Rio Ave	25	9	6	10	-3	33
10	Famalicao	25	10	3	12	-7	33
11	Chaves	25	8	8	9	-5	32
12	Boavista	25	8	6	11	-12	30
13	Gil Vicente	25	8	5	12	-6	29
14	Portimonense	25	8	2	15	-14	26
15	Estoril	26	7	4	15	-17	25
16	Pacos Ferreira	26	4	5	17	-24	17
17	Maritimo	25	4	4	17	-30	16
18	Santa Clara	25	3	6	16	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+32	37
2	Porto	12	10	0	2	+26	30
3	Sp Lisbon	12	10	0	2	+25	30
4	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+4	27
5	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+17	26
6	Arouca	13	7	2	4	+3	23
7	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+5	22
8	Famalicao	12	7	1	4	+4	22
9	Casa Pia	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Boavista	13	5	5	3	-1	20
11	Vizela	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Portimonense	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+0	16
14	Chaves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
15	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-10	14
16	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-6	11
17	Santa Clara	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	10	1	1	+20	31
2	Sp Braga	13	10	0	3	+15	30
3	Porto	13	8	4	1	+12	28
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Vizela	13	5	3	5	+1	18
6	Chaves	13	5	3	5	-4	18
7	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-7	17
8	Arouca	12	3	6	3	-6	15
9	Guimaraes	12	4	2	6	-8	14
10	Gil Vicente	13	4	1	8	-6	13
11	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Rio Ave	13	2	5	6	-8	11
13	Famalicao	13	3	2	8	-11	11
14	Boavista	12	3	1	8	-11	10
15	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	3	8	-10	9
16	Portimonense	12	3	0	9	-12	9
17	Santa Clara	12	1	2	9	-9	5
18	Maritimo	13	1	2	10	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.