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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Cardiff

S T S T U

2–3

Full-time

Swansea

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 37/38 matches

Win Ø 30%

27%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

24%

58%

Both score Ø 45%

32%

58%

Average goals

1,9

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	38	24	12	2	+45	84
2	Sheffield United	37	21	7	9	+25	70
3	Middlesbrough	37	20	7	10	+28	67
4	Luton	36	18	10	8	+13	64
5	Blackburn	37	19	4	14	+1	61
6	Millwall	38	17	9	12	+8	60
7	Norwich	38	16	9	13	+11	57
8	Preston	39	15	11	13	-7	56
9	West Brom	37	15	10	12	+8	55
10	Watford	39	14	13	12	+3	55
11	Coventry	36	14	11	11	+9	53
12	Sunderland	37	14	10	13	+7	52
13	Stoke	38	13	9	16	+3	48
14	Bristol City	38	12	12	14	-1	48
15	Hull	38	12	11	15	-10	47
16	Swansea	38	12	10	16	-6	46
17	Birmingham	38	12	9	17	-8	45
18	Reading	38	13	6	19	-18	45
19	QPR	38	11	9	18	-21	42
20	Rotherham	37	9	13	15	-10	40
21	Cardiff	37	10	9	18	-13	39
22	Huddersfield	38	9	9	20	-21	36
23	Blackpool	39	8	11	20	-20	35
24	Wigan	38	7	13	18	-26	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	14	6	0	+30	48
2	Blackburn	18	13	1	4	+11	40
3	Middlesbrough	19	11	6	2	+22	39
4	Sheffield United	18	11	3	4	+18	36
5	Millwall	19	10	5	4	+12	35
6	West Brom	19	10	5	4	+11	35
7	Reading	19	10	4	5	+7	34
8	Watford	19	9	6	4	+11	33
9	Luton	19	8	7	4	+7	31
10	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+6	29
11	Coventry	17	8	5	4	+6	29
12	Norwich	19	8	4	7	+5	28
13	Swansea	19	8	3	8	+2	27
14	Rotherham	18	7	5	6	+7	26
15	Hull	19	7	4	8	-5	25
16	Cardiff	19	6	6	7	-1	24
17	Preston	20	6	6	8	-6	24
18	Stoke	19	6	5	8	+2	23
19	Birmingham	19	6	5	8	+1	23
20	Sunderland	18	6	5	7	-1	23
21	Huddersfield	19	6	5	8	-4	23
22	QPR	19	6	4	9	-7	22
23	Blackpool	19	5	6	8	-2	21
24	Wigan	19	3	6	10	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+15	36
2	Sheffield United	19	10	4	5	+7	34
3	Luton	17	10	3	4	+6	33
4	Preston	19	9	5	5	-1	32
5	Sunderland	19	8	5	6	+8	29
6	Norwich	19	8	5	6	+6	29
7	Middlesbrough	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Stoke	19	7	4	8	+1	25
9	Millwall	19	7	4	8	-4	25
10	Coventry	19	6	6	7	+3	24
11	Hull	19	5	7	7	-5	22
12	Watford	20	5	7	8	-8	22
13	Birmingham	19	6	4	9	-9	22
14	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	-10	21
15	West Brom	18	5	5	8	-3	20
16	QPR	19	5	5	9	-14	20
17	Bristol City	19	4	7	8	-7	19
18	Swansea	19	4	7	8	-8	19
19	Wigan	19	4	7	8	-8	19
20	Cardiff	18	4	3	11	-12	15
21	Rotherham	19	2	8	9	-17	14
22	Blackpool	20	3	5	12	-18	14
23	Huddersfield	19	3	4	12	-17	13
24	Reading	19	3	2	14	-25	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.