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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

RB Leipzig

S T S T T

0–3

Full-time

Mainz

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

52%

40%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

72%

56%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

64%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,81 xG 3,09

70% Possession 30%

12 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · Mainz 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	25	17	2	6	+24	+7.8	53
2	Bayern Munich	25	15	7	3	+45	+4.8	52
3	Union Berlin	25	14	6	5	+10	-1.2	48
4	Freiburg	25	13	7	5	+4	-1.7	46
5	RB Leipzig	25	13	6	6	+19	+7.3	45
6	Ein Frankfurt	26	11	8	7	+10	-0.1	41
7	Wolfsburg	25	10	8	7	+12	+4.2	38
8	Leverkusen	25	11	4	10	+5	+6.8	37
9	Mainz	25	10	7	8	+4	-0.4	37
10	M'gladbach	25	8	7	10	-4	-1.0	31
11	Werder Bremen	25	9	4	12	-9	-5.4	31
12	Augsburg	25	8	4	13	-13	-3.5	28
13	FC Koln	25	6	9	10	-11	-1.0	27
14	Bochum	26	8	2	16	-29	-6.1	26
15	Hoffenheim	25	6	4	15	-12	-3.5	22
16	Hertha	25	5	6	14	-18	-6.0	21
17	Schalke 04	25	4	9	12	-24	-0.1	21
18	Stuttgart	25	4	8	13	-13	-0.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	10	1	1	+24	+4.9	31
2	RB Leipzig	12	9	2	1	+18	+0.3	29
3	Bayern Munich	12	8	4	0	+28	+8.1	28
4	Union Berlin	12	8	4	0	+13	+0.5	28
5	Freiburg	12	8	3	1	+11	+1.0	27
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+13	+4.4	24
7	M'gladbach	13	7	3	3	+10	+3.7	24
8	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	+9	+4.6	20
9	Mainz	13	5	5	3	+8	+1.5	20
10	Bochum	12	6	1	5	-3	+0.9	19
11	FC Koln	12	5	3	4	+7	+2.9	18
12	Augsburg	13	5	3	5	-4	-1.4	18
13	Wolfsburg	12	4	5	3	+6	+3.1	17
14	Hertha	13	4	5	4	-1	-0.1	17
15	Werder Bremen	13	5	1	7	+1	+0.6	16
16	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	+0	+1.2	15
17	Hoffenheim	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.1	14
18	Schalke 04	13	3	4	6	-14	-1.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	7	3	3	+17	-3.3	24
2	Dortmund	13	7	1	5	+0	+2.8	22
3	Wolfsburg	13	6	3	4	+6	+1.1	21
4	Union Berlin	13	6	2	5	-3	-1.7	20
5	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	-7	-2.7	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	5	4	-3	-4.5	17
7	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	-4	+2.3	17
8	Mainz	12	5	2	5	-4	-1.9	17
9	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+1	+7.0	16
10	Werder Bremen	12	4	3	5	-10	-6.1	15
11	Augsburg	12	3	1	8	-9	-2.2	10
12	FC Koln	13	1	6	6	-18	-3.9	9
13	Hoffenheim	12	2	2	8	-7	-4.6	8
14	Schalke 04	12	1	5	6	-10	+1.1	8
15	M'gladbach	12	1	4	7	-14	-4.7	7
16	Bochum	14	2	1	11	-26	-7.0	7
17	Stuttgart	12	0	5	7	-13	-2.1	5
18	Hertha	12	1	1	10	-17	-5.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.