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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Spezia

T T U T U

2–1

Full-time

Inter

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 41%

17%

64%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

54%

60%

Both score Ø 49%

46%

52%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 3,87

31% Possession 69%

4 Shots 28

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 13

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Inter 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	25	21	2	2	+42	+7.1	65
2	Juventus	25	15	5	5	+20	+3.4	50
3	Inter	25	16	2	7	+18	+6.1	50
4	Lazio	25	14	6	5	+22	+2.5	48
5	Roma	25	14	5	6	+11	+3.2	47
6	Milan	25	14	5	6	+10	-1.0	47
7	Atalanta	25	12	6	7	+14	+1.9	42
8	Bologna	25	10	5	10	-3	-0.9	35
9	Torino	25	9	7	9	-2	+2.0	34
10	Udinese	25	7	11	7	+3	-2.3	32
11	Monza	25	9	5	11	-5	-2.9	32
12	Fiorentina	25	8	7	10	-2	+3.8	31
13	Sassuolo	25	8	6	11	-7	-0.5	30
14	Empoli	25	6	10	9	-10	-3.7	28
15	Lecce	25	6	9	10	-5	-1.2	27
16	Salernitana	25	6	7	12	-16	-4.4	25
17	Spezia	24	4	8	12	-20	-3.4	20
18	Verona	24	4	5	15	-17	-1.5	17
19	Cremonese	25	1	9	15	-25	-4.9	12
20	Sampdoria	25	2	6	17	-28	-3.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+21	+3.6	33
2	Napoli	12	10	1	1	+22	+2.5	31
3	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+19	+1.9	30
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+11	+1.5	28
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+9	-0.2	25
6	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	+0.9	24
7	Bologna	13	6	4	3	+7	+1.1	22
8	Torino	12	5	4	3	+3	+3.1	19
9	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	-1	+3.4	19
10	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	+3.1	18
11	Monza	13	5	3	5	+3	-1.1	18
12	Sassuolo	12	5	2	5	+1	-0.3	17
13	Udinese	12	3	7	2	+5	+2.1	16
14	Empoli	12	4	4	4	-2	-2.5	16
15	Salernitana	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
16	Verona	13	4	1	8	-7	+0.0	13
17	Lecce	12	2	6	4	-2	-1.0	12
18	Spezia	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.3	12
19	Cremonese	12	1	3	8	-13	-2.5	6
20	Sampdoria	13	0	4	9	-15	-0.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Lazio	12	7	3	2	+12	+1.6	24
3	Atalanta	13	7	3	3	+7	-1.2	24
4	Roma	13	6	4	3	+2	+3.4	22
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.4	20
6	Milan	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.4	19
7	Inter	12	5	2	5	-3	+2.5	17
8	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.4	16
9	Lecce	13	4	3	6	-3	-0.1	15
10	Torino	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.1	15
11	Monza	12	4	2	6	-8	-1.8	14
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-8	-0.2	13
13	Bologna	12	4	1	7	-10	-2.0	13
14	Fiorentina	12	3	3	6	-1	+0.4	12
15	Empoli	13	2	6	5	-8	-1.2	12
16	Salernitana	12	2	4	6	-15	-0.4	10
17	Sampdoria	12	2	2	8	-13	-3.0	8
18	Spezia	12	2	2	8	-14	-1.1	8
19	Cremonese	13	0	6	7	-12	-2.4	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.