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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Man City

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Liverpool

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

3,8

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+3,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 58%

70%

46%

Points per game

2,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 51%

56%

46%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,96 xG 0,33

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Liverpool 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	22	3	3	+40	+9.6	69
2	Man City	27	19	4	4	+42	+12.1	61
3	Man United	26	15	5	6	+6	+0.7	50
4	Tottenham	28	15	4	9	+12	+0.5	49
5	Newcastle	26	12	11	3	+20	+2.8	47
6	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+18	+6.2	42
7	Brighton	25	12	6	7	+15	+8.8	42
8	Brentford	27	10	12	5	+9	+4.1	42
9	Fulham	27	11	6	10	+1	-4.1	39
10	Chelsea	27	10	8	9	+1	+2.0	38
11	Aston Villa	27	11	5	11	-4	-3.0	38
12	Crystal Palace	28	6	9	13	-16	-7.7	27
13	Wolves	28	7	6	15	-19	-3.6	27
14	Leeds	27	6	8	13	-9	-2.3	26
15	Everton	28	6	8	14	-18	-5.0	26
16	Nott'm Forest	27	6	8	13	-27	-8.1	26
17	Leicester	27	7	4	16	-9	-1.2	25
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-10	+0.4	24
19	Bournemouth	27	6	6	15	-29	-7.0	24
20	Southampton	28	6	5	17	-23	-4.9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+21	+5.4	35
2	Man City	13	11	1	1	+30	+7.5	34
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.7	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Brentford	14	7	6	1	+14	+1.3	27
7	Newcastle	13	7	5	1	+12	+0.9	26
8	Brighton	13	7	2	4	+11	+6.0	23
9	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+4	-0.3	23
10	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+6	+3.2	22
11	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
12	Nott'm Forest	14	5	5	4	+1	-4.9	20
13	West Ham	13	5	3	5	+3	+4.8	18
14	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.4	17
16	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-6	-6.0	17
17	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-7	+0.8	17
18	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Newcastle	13	5	6	2	+8	+1.9	21
4	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
5	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
6	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	-1	-1.5	19
7	Fulham	13	5	2	6	+0	-3.2	17
8	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
9	Brentford	13	3	6	4	-5	+2.8	15
10	Aston Villa	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.7	15
11	Leicester	14	4	1	9	-8	-0.7	13
12	Southampton	14	4	1	9	-13	-2.8	13
13	Liverpool	13	3	3	7	-7	+0.8	12
14	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.7	10
15	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-12	-4.4	10
16	Leeds	14	2	3	9	-9	-3.4	9
17	Everton	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.4	9
18	Bournemouth	14	2	2	10	-26	-4.7	8
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.