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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kamphuis

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 26/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

62%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

62%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Heerenveen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	26	18	7	1	+34	61
2	Ajax	26	16	7	3	+44	55
3	PSV Eindhoven	26	16	5	5	+36	53
4	AZ Alkmaar	26	16	5	5	+22	53
5	Twente	23	13	6	4	+23	45
6	Sparta Rotterdam	23	13	6	4	+19	45
7	Nijmegen	26	7	13	6	+9	34
8	Waalwijk	25	8	8	9	+0	32
9	Utrecht	24	8	8	8	-4	32
10	Heerenveen	24	8	6	10	-6	30
11	Go Ahead Eagles	25	7	8	10	-8	29
12	For Sittard	26	8	5	13	-14	29
13	Volendam	26	7	5	14	-25	26
14	Vitesse	26	5	9	12	-16	24
15	Excelsior	26	7	2	17	-36	23
16	FC Emmen	26	4	9	13	-22	21
17	Groningen	26	4	5	17	-27	17
18	Cambuur	26	4	4	18	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	11	1	1	+32	34
2	Twente	12	10	2	0	+25	32
3	Feyenoord	13	9	4	0	+19	31
4	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+25	25
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	8	1	2	+13	25
6	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	4	1	+11	25
7	Waalwijk	13	6	3	4	+8	21
8	Volendam	13	6	1	6	-6	19
9	Excelsior	13	6	1	6	-6	19
10	Nijmegen	13	3	9	1	+9	18
11	FC Emmen	14	3	8	3	-2	17
12	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Utrecht	12	4	4	4	-1	16
14	Groningen	13	3	3	7	-6	12
15	For Sittard	13	3	3	7	-8	12
16	Heerenveen	12	3	2	7	-8	11
17	Vitesse	13	2	5	6	-11	11
18	Cambuur	13	2	0	11	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	13	9	3	1	+19	30
2	Feyenoord	13	9	3	1	+15	30
3	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	1	4	+11	28
4	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	5	2	+6	20
5	PSV Eindhoven	13	5	4	4	+4	19
6	Heerenveen	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	For Sittard	13	5	2	6	-6	17
8	Nijmegen	13	4	4	5	+0	16
9	Utrecht	12	4	4	4	-3	16
10	Twente	11	3	4	4	-2	13
11	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	-5	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	Waalwijk	12	2	5	5	-8	11
14	Cambuur	13	2	4	7	-13	10
15	Volendam	13	1	4	8	-19	7
16	Groningen	13	1	2	10	-21	5
17	FC Emmen	12	1	1	10	-20	4
18	Excelsior	13	1	1	11	-30	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.