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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Fiorentina

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

35%

23%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

42%

31%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 0,56

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 12. · Lecce 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	26	22	2	2	+44	+8.1	68
2	Juventus	26	16	5	5	+22	+5.4	53
3	Inter	26	16	2	8	+17	+9.0	50
4	Lazio	26	14	7	5	+22	+2.4	49
5	Milan	27	14	6	7	+8	+0.1	48
6	Roma	26	14	5	7	+10	+1.1	47
7	Atalanta	27	13	6	8	+13	+3.1	45
8	Udinese	27	9	11	7	+6	-1.7	38
9	Torino	26	10	7	9	+0	+1.6	37
10	Bologna	27	10	7	10	-3	-1.2	37
11	Sassuolo	27	10	6	11	-5	+2.9	36
12	Fiorentina	26	9	7	10	+0	+3.7	34
13	Monza	27	9	7	11	-5	-1.1	34
14	Empoli	27	6	10	11	-12	-6.1	28
15	Lecce	26	6	9	11	-7	-0.7	27
16	Salernitana	27	6	9	12	-16	-5.5	27
17	Spezia	26	5	8	13	-20	-7.6	23
18	Verona	26	4	6	16	-19	-2.0	18
19	Sampdoria	27	3	6	18	-28	-5.4	15
20	Cremonese	27	1	10	16	-27	-6.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
2	Juventus	14	10	3	1	+21	+4.0	33
3	Inter	13	11	0	2	+21	+3.6	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Roma	13	8	1	4	+8	-2.3	25
6	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	+0.9	24
7	Bologna	14	6	5	3	+7	+1.2	23
8	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
9	Sassuolo	13	6	2	5	+2	+1.0	20
10	Udinese	13	4	7	2	+7	+2.5	19
11	Monza	14	5	4	5	+3	+0.2	19
12	Torino	12	5	4	3	+3	+3.1	19
13	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	-1	+3.4	19
14	Salernitana	14	4	4	6	-1	-3.6	16
15	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
16	Spezia	13	3	6	4	-5	-5.2	15
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	13	1	3	9	-15	-2.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	+1.5	25
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+5	-2.3	24
4	Roma	13	6	4	3	+2	+3.4	22
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.4	20
6	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-1	-4.2	19
7	Milan	14	5	4	5	-3	-2.8	19
8	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
9	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
10	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
11	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	+1	+0.3	15
12	Lecce	13	4	3	6	-3	-0.1	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.4	12
16	Salernitana	13	2	5	6	-15	-2.0	11
17	Sampdoria	13	2	2	9	-15	-5.1	8
18	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	12	0	4	8	-12	-1.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.