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Coppa Italia

Referee: F La Penna

Spezia

T S T T U

3–1

Full-time

Brescia

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Brescia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Coppa Italia · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

6,0

5,0

Scored

5,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 10

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 12

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 5. · Brescia 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	2	2	0	+7	6
2	Bari	2	2	0	+6	6
3	Modena	2	2	0	+3	6
4	Genoa	2	2	0	+2	6
5	Spezia	1	1	0	+4	3
6	Brescia	1	1	0	+3	3
7	Parma	1	1	0	+2	3
8	FeralpiSalo	2	1	1	+1	3
9	Cagliari	1	1	0	+1	3
10	Ascoli	1	1	0	+1	3
11	Monza	1	1	0	+1	3
12	Cremonese	1	1	0	+1	3
13	Udinese	1	1	0	+1	3
14	Sampdoria	1	1	0	+1	3
15	Bologna	1	1	0	+1	3
16	Spal	2	1	1	+0	3
17	Palermo	2	1	1	-2	3
18	Cittadella	2	1	1	-3	3
19	Reggiana	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Perugia	1	0	1	-1	0
21	Lecce	1	0	1	-1	0
22	Venezia	1	0	1	-1	0
23	Frosinone	1	0	1	-1	0
24	Benevento	1	0	1	-1	0
25	Sassuolo	1	0	1	-1	0
26	Ternana	1	0	1	-1	0
27	Empoli	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Reggina	1	0	1	-1	0
29	Cosenza	1	0	1	-1	0
30	Sudtirol	1	0	1	-2	0
31	Catanzaro	1	0	1	-2	0
32	Salernitana	1	0	1	-2	0
33	Pisa	1	0	1	-3	0
34	Verona	1	0	1	-3	0
35	Padova	1	0	1	-3	0
36	Como	1	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	2	2	0	+7	6
2	Modena	2	2	0	+3	6
3	Genoa	2	2	0	+2	6
4	Spezia	1	1	0	+4	3
5	Bari	1	1	0	+3	3
6	Palermo	1	1	0	+1	3
7	Cagliari	1	1	0	+1	3
8	Monza	1	1	0	+1	3
9	Cremonese	1	1	0	+1	3
10	Udinese	1	1	0	+1	3
11	Sampdoria	1	1	0	+1	3
12	Bologna	1	1	0	+1	3
13	Lecce	1	0	1	-1	0
14	Venezia	1	0	1	-1	0
15	Empoli	1	0	1	-1	0
16	Sudtirol	1	0	1	-2	0
17	Salernitana	1	0	1	-2	0
18	Pisa	1	0	1	-3	0
19	Verona	1	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Brescia	1	1	0	+3	3
2	Bari	1	1	0	+3	3
3	Parma	1	1	0	+2	3
4	FeralpiSalo	2	1	1	+1	3
5	Ascoli	1	1	0	+1	3
6	Spal	2	1	1	+0	3
7	Cittadella	2	1	1	-3	3
8	Reggiana	1	0	1	-1	0
9	Perugia	1	0	1	-1	0
10	Frosinone	1	0	1	-1	0
11	Benevento	1	0	1	-1	0
12	Sassuolo	1	0	1	-1	0
13	Ternana	1	0	1	-1	0
14	Reggina	1	0	1	-1	0
15	Cosenza	1	0	1	-1	0
16	Catanzaro	1	0	1	-2	0
17	Padova	1	0	1	-3	0
18	Palermo	1	0	1	-3	0
19	Como	1	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.