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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Spezia

T S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

29%

48%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

58%

74%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

57%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

33% Possession 67%

9 Shots 21

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 8

5 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 14. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	25	17	4	4	+24	55
2	Inter	24	16	6	2	+35	54
3	Napoli	25	16	5	4	+29	53
4	Juventus	25	13	7	5	+15	46
5	Atalanta	24	12	8	4	+17	44
6	Lazio	25	12	6	7	+13	42
7	Roma	25	12	4	9	+10	40
8	Fiorentina	23	11	3	9	+8	36
9	Verona	25	10	6	9	+7	36
10	Torino	24	9	5	10	+6	32
11	Empoli	25	8	7	10	-10	31
12	Sassuolo	25	7	9	9	-3	30
13	Bologna	24	8	4	12	-11	28
14	Spezia	24	7	5	12	-18	26
15	Udinese	23	5	9	9	-10	24
16	Sampdoria	25	6	5	14	-9	23
17	Cagliari	25	4	9	12	-21	21
18	Venezia	24	5	6	13	-21	21
19	Genoa	25	1	12	12	-25	15
20	Salernitana	23	3	4	16	-36	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+20	29
2	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
3	Milan	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Lazio	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Torino	13	7	3	3	+12	24
6	Roma	13	7	3	3	+5	24
7	Verona	13	7	2	4	+10	23
8	Juventus	12	7	2	3	+8	23
9	Fiorentina	11	7	1	3	+14	22
10	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
11	Atalanta	12	3	5	4	+2	14
12	Udinese	11	3	5	3	-3	14
13	Sassuolo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Spezia	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-5	12
16	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-6	11
17	Empoli	13	3	2	8	-14	11
18	Venezia	12	2	3	7	-10	9
19	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-10	6
20	Salernitana	11	1	2	8	-19	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	12	9	3	0	+15	30
2	Milan	12	9	2	1	+14	29
3	Napoli	12	8	3	1	+15	27
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+7	23
6	Empoli	12	5	5	2	+4	20
7	Lazio	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	Roma	12	5	1	6	+5	16
9	Sassuolo	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Fiorentina	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Spezia	13	4	2	7	-16	14
12	Verona	12	3	4	5	-3	13
13	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-11	12
14	Sampdoria	12	3	2	7	-4	11
15	Bologna	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Udinese	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-15	10
18	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-15	9
19	Torino	11	2	2	7	-6	8
20	Salernitana	12	2	2	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.