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Serie A

Referee: A Santoro

Napoli

S U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

60%

20%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,4

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

28 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 1

14 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Spezia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	11
3	Milan	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Udinese	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Roma	5	3	1	1	+1	10
6	Torino	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+5	9
8	Inter	5	3	0	2	+3	9
9	Lazio	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Salernitana	5	1	3	1	+3	6
11	Fiorentina	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Sassuolo	5	1	3	1	-2	6
13	Verona	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Spezia	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Empoli	5	0	4	1	-1	4
16	Bologna	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Cremonese	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Monza	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Roma	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Spezia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Salernitana	3	1	1	1	+3	4
11	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Verona	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Sampdoria	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Cremonese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Monza	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Torino	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Roma	3	1	1	1	-3	4
5	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
6	Inter	3	1	0	2	-2	3
7	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Lazio	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Milan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Empoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Sassuolo	3	0	2	1	-3	2
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Cremonese	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Spezia	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.