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Super League
Referee: L Fähndrich
Lugano
S T S T S
1–0
Full-time
Basel
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
This season — Super League · 9/8 matches
Win Ø 41%
44%
38%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
78%
50%
Both score Ø 71%
67%
75%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,9
Conceded
1,7
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
5 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 8. · Basel 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 10 7 2 1 +18 23
2 Servette 10 5 3 2 +3 18
3 St. Gallen 10 5 0 5 +4 15
4 Sion 10 4 3 3 -1 15
5 Grasshoppers 10 3 5 2 -1 14
6 Basel 8 3 3 2 +4 12
7 Luzern 9 3 3 3 +3 12
8 Lugano 9 4 0 5 +0 12
9 Winterthur 9 1 2 6 -17 5
10 Zurich 9 0 3 6 -13 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Aug -22 Basel – Lugano 0–2 22. May -22 Basel – Lugano 2–1 6. Mar -22 Lugano – Basel 0–2 24. Oct -21 Basel – Lugano 2–0 12. Sep -21 Lugano – Basel 1–1

Match report

Lugano Basel
Jonathan Sabbatini 🟨
24′
A. Hajdari 🔁
↦ F. Daprelà
28′
1–0 H. Mahou ⚽
O. Doumbia
33′
Half-time 1–0
61′
🟨 Michael Lang
62′
🟨 Zeki Amdouni
M. Bottani 🔁
↦ H. Mahou
64′
M. Amoura 🔁
↦ B. Babic
64′
64′
🔁 D. Males
↦ A. Zeqiri
64′
🔁 B. Fink
↦ K. Sène
65′
🔁 A. Pelmard
↦ M. Lang
73′
🔁 F. Frei
↦ T. Xhaka
M. Haile-Selassie 🔁
↦ R. Steffen
77′
R. Macek 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
78′
Milton Valenzuela 🟨
84′
89′
🔁 S. Ltaief
↦ D. Ndoye
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
17 M. Valenzuela D
15 L. Mai D
30 F. Daprelà D
3 R. Ziegler D
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Doumbia M
18 H. Mahou M
25 U. Bislimi M
22 R. Steffen M
27 B. Babic F
Bench (9)
5 A. Hajdari
10 M. Bottani
47 M. Amoura
11 M. Haile-Selassie
77 R. Macek
58 S. Osigwe
8 A. Durrer
34 A. Arigoni
4 K. Hajrizi

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Basel

4-2-3-1
1 M. Hitz G
5 M. Lang D
4 Arnau Comas D
15 K. Nuhu D
33 R. Calafiori D
34 T. Xhaka M
8 A. Diouf M
27 D. Ndoye M
9 Z. Amdouni M
26 K. Sène M
17 A. Zeqiri F
Bench (9)
19 D. Males
14 B. Fink
21 A. Pelmard
20 F. Frei
42 S. Ltaief
3 N. Katterbach
13 M. Salvi
7 L. Millar
10 J. Augustin

Coach: A. Frei

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Fähndrich · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.