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Super League
Referee: F San
Lugano
U T T T T
1–1
Full-time
Luzern
U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Luzern
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
This season — Super League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%
13 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
9 Corners 8
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 9. · Luzern 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sion 7 5 1 1 +4 16
2 Basel 6 5 0 1 +9 15
3 Young Boys 6 4 2 0 +8 14
4 St. Gallen 7 3 1 3 +0 10
5 Servette 7 2 3 2 +1 9
6 Luzern 6 1 2 3 -2 5
7 Thun 6 1 2 3 -4 5
8 Zurich 6 1 2 3 -9 5
9 Lugano 6 1 1 4 -1 4
10 Xamax 7 0 4 3 -6 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.