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La Liga
Referee: Guillermo Cuadra
Valencia
T U S S T
0–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,5
2,2
Scored
0,7
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,8
This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
2,5
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%
12 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 7
6 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 2
1 Offside 7
15 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Valencia 14. · Ath Madrid 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 3 3 0 0 +6 9
2 Betis 3 3 0 0 +5 9
3 Barcelona 3 2 1 0 +7 7
4 Ath Bilbao 3 2 1 0 +5 7
5 Villarreal 3 2 1 0 +5 7
6 Osasuna 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Sociedad 3 2 0 1 -1 6
8 Mallorca 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Almeria 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Vallecano 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Celta 3 1 1 1 -2 4
12 Ath Madrid 2 1 0 1 +1 3
13 Girona 3 1 0 2 +0 3
14 Valencia 2 1 0 1 +0 3
15 Sevilla 3 0 1 2 -2 1
16 Espanol 3 0 1 2 -4 1
17 Elche 3 0 1 2 -4 1
18 Getafe 3 0 1 2 -5 1
19 Valladolid 3 0 1 2 -7 1
20 Cadiz 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Valencia Ath Madrid
14′
🟨 Saúl Ñíguez
Marcos André 🟨
18′
Yunus Musah ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
25′
27′
🟨 Reinildo Isnard Mandava
Thierry Correia 🟥
VAR: Red card cancelled
41′
Thierry Correia 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 Y. Carrasco
↦ Saúl
55′
🟨 João Félix
64′
🔁 T. Lemar
↦ R. De Paul
64′
🔁 A. Griezmann
↦ G. Kondogbia
66′
A. Griezmann 0–1
T. Lemar
Nico González 🔁
↦ Hugo Guillamón
69′
D. Foulquier 🔁
↦ Thierry Correia
69′
Fran Pérez 🔁
↦ Samu Castillejo
74′
M. Gómez 🔁
↦ Marcos André
74′
Eray Cömert 🟨
76′
Diego López 🔁
↦ Toni Lato
81′
Francisco Perez 🟨
83′
83′
🔁 Matheus Cunha
↦ João Félix
83′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ Álvaro Morata
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Valencia

4-2-3-1
28 G. Mamardashvili G
2 Thierry Correia D
24 E. Cömert D
12 M. Diakhaby D
3 Toni Lato D
4 Y. Musah M
6 Hugo Guillamón M
11 Samu Castillejo M
10 Carlos Soler M
16 Samuel Lino M
22 Marcos André F
Bench (12)
17 Nico González
20 D. Foulquier
29 Fran Pérez
9 M. Gómez
40 Diego López
26 Carlos Manuel
33 Cristhian Mosquera
15 C. Özkaçar
1 Jaume Doménech
21 Manu Vallejo
18 André Almeida
8 U. Račić

Coach: G. Gattuso

Ath Madrid

5-3-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
2 J. Giménez D
20 A. Witsel D
23 Reinildo D
17 Saúl D
5 R. De Paul M
4 G. Kondogbia M
6 Koke M
19 Álvaro Morata F
7 João Félix F
Bench (9)
21 Y. Carrasco
11 T. Lemar
8 A. Griezmann
9 Matheus Cunha
10 Á. Correa
18 Felipe
31 Antonio Gomís
22 Hermoso
1 I. Grbić

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,02
U
3,33
B ✓
2,03
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,25
U2,5 ✓
1,66
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.