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Champions League
Referee: A Taylor
Salzburg
S U T S T
1–4
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,0
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/7 matches
Win Ø 49%
27%
71%
Points per game
1,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 87%
73%
100%
Both score Ø 58%
45%
71%
Average goals
3,6
3,9
Scored
1,1
2,3
Conceded
2,5
1,6
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,62 xG 1,96
50% Possession 50%
10 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 8
5 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Salzburg Ath Madrid
5′
⚽ G. Simeone 0–1
J. Alvarez
13′
⚽ A. Griezmann 0–2
G. Simeone
Half-time 0–3
46′
⚽ A. Griezmann 0–3
Samuel Lino
Nicolás Capaldo 🟨
57′
T. Kawamura 🔁
↦ M. Diambou
58′
B. Clark 🔁
↦ D. Nene
58′
59′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ G. Simeone
59′
🔁 A. Sørloth
↦ J. Alvarez
63′
⚽ Marcos Llorente 0–4
R. De Paul
Hendry Blank 🟨
66′
P. Ratkov 🔁
↦ M. Yeo
67′
67′
🔁 Rodrigo Riquelme
↦ A. Griezmann
67′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ R. De Paul
81′
🔁 T. Lemar
↦ Samuel Lino
Stefan Bajčetić 🔁
↦ N. Capaldo
85′
L. Morgalla 🔁
↦ A. Terzić
85′
1–4 A. Daghim ⚽
A. Schlager
91′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Salzburg

4-4-2
24 A. Schlager G
70 A. Dedić D
6 S. Baidoo D
4 H. Blank D
3 A. Terzić D
49 M. Yeo M
7 N. Capaldo M
15 M. Diambou M
30 O. Gloukh M
28 A. Daghim F
45 D. Nene F
Bench (8)
16 T. Kawamura
10 B. Clark
21 P. Ratkov
8 Stefan Bajčetić
39 L. Morgalla
36 J. Mellberg
1 J. Blaswich
92 S. Hamzić

Coach: T. Letsch

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
24 Robin Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
3 César Azpilicueta D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
12 Samuel Lino M
19 J. Alvarez F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (12)
16 N. Molina
9 A. Sørloth
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
4 C. Gallagher
11 T. Lemar
10 Á. Correa
20 A. Witsel
1 J. Musso
2 J. Giménez
27 I. Kostis
23 Reinildo
40 Rayane Belaid

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.