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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Girona

S T S S T

0–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

33%

54%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

58%

33%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,33 xG 2,09

50% Possession 50%

6 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 12. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	21	2	2	+39	+5.9	65
2	Real Madrid	25	17	5	3	+31	+10.6	56
3	Ath Madrid	24	13	6	5	+19	+4.4	45
4	Sociedad	25	13	6	6	+9	+0.4	45
5	Betis	25	12	6	7	+7	+3.5	42
6	Villarreal	25	11	5	9	+5	+2.4	38
7	Vallecano	25	9	8	8	+1	-0.4	35
8	Osasuna	25	9	7	9	-2	-7.2	34
9	Ath Bilbao	25	9	6	10	+6	-0.3	33
10	Mallorca	25	9	5	11	-4	-2.9	32
11	Celta	25	8	7	10	-5	+1.6	31
12	Girona	24	8	6	10	+0	-1.3	30
13	Sevilla	25	7	7	11	-11	+4.0	28
14	Valladolid	25	8	4	13	-16	-6.4	28
15	Espanol	25	6	9	10	-8	-0.1	27
16	Cadiz	25	6	9	10	-17	-2.1	27
17	Valencia	25	7	5	13	+0	-2.8	26
18	Getafe	25	6	8	11	-9	-0.5	26
19	Almeria	25	7	4	14	-15	-4.2	25
20	Elche	25	2	7	16	-30	-4.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	2	0	+24	+4.1	32
2	Real Madrid	12	8	4	0	+17	+8.4	28
3	Villarreal	12	7	2	3	+7	+3.3	23
4	Almeria	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.7	22
5	Ath Madrid	12	6	3	3	+11	+4.5	21
6	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
7	Betis	12	6	3	3	+6	+0.9	21
8	Mallorca	13	6	3	4	+3	+1.2	21
9	Valencia	13	6	2	5	+8	+2.0	20
10	Ath Bilbao	13	6	2	5	+7	+0.7	20
11	Valladolid	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.3	20
12	Celta	13	5	4	4	+5	+2.7	19
13	Vallecano	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.3	19
14	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.9	19
15	Osasuna	12	6	1	5	+1	-2.5	19
16	Sevilla	13	5	3	5	+0	+9.1	18
17	Cadiz	13	4	6	3	-3	+1.2	18
18	Getafe	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.2	16
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	13	1	4	8	-10	+1.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	11	0	2	+15	+1.8	33
2	Real Madrid	13	9	1	3	+14	+2.2	28
3	Sociedad	13	8	2	3	+8	-0.4	26
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	13	6	3	4	+1	+2.6	21
6	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-3	-0.1	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	3	6	-2	-1.0	15
8	Osasuna	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.7	15
9	Espanol	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.6	14
10	Ath Bilbao	12	3	4	5	-1	-0.9	13
11	Celta	12	3	3	6	-10	-1.1	12
12	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
13	Getafe	12	2	4	6	-7	+0.8	10
14	Sevilla	12	2	4	6	-11	-5.1	10
15	Girona	12	2	3	7	-6	-3.9	9
16	Cadiz	12	2	3	7	-14	-3.2	9
17	Valladolid	13	2	2	9	-17	-7.7	8
18	Valencia	12	1	3	8	-8	-4.7	6
19	Elche	12	1	3	8	-20	-6.1	6
20	Almeria	12	0	3	9	-18	-3.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.