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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Barcelona

T T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 76%

84%

68%

Points per game

2,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,62 xG 0,55

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	21	2	2	+39	+5.9	65
2	Real Madrid	25	17	5	3	+31	+10.6	56
3	Ath Madrid	26	15	6	5	+23	+7.5	51
4	Sociedad	26	14	6	6	+11	+2.3	48
5	Betis	26	13	6	7	+8	+4.1	45
6	Villarreal	26	12	5	9	+8	+3.3	41
7	Ath Bilbao	26	10	6	10	+8	+1.2	36
8	Vallecano	26	9	9	8	+1	-0.2	36
9	Celta	26	9	7	10	-3	+1.9	34
10	Osasuna	26	9	7	10	-5	-8.1	34
11	Mallorca	26	9	5	12	-5	-3.5	32
12	Girona	26	8	7	11	-1	-3.2	31
13	Getafe	26	7	8	11	-7	+0.4	29
14	Sevilla	26	7	7	12	-13	+3.1	28
15	Cadiz	26	6	10	10	-17	-3.2	28
16	Valladolid	26	8	4	14	-18	-7.9	28
17	Espanol	26	6	9	11	-10	-0.4	27
18	Valencia	26	7	5	14	-3	-4.0	26
19	Almeria	26	7	5	14	-15	-3.0	26
20	Elche	26	2	7	17	-32	-6.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	2	0	+24	+4.1	32
2	Real Madrid	12	8	4	0	+17	+8.4	28
3	Ath Madrid	13	7	3	3	+14	+5.8	24
4	Betis	13	7	3	3	+7	+1.5	24
5	Villarreal	12	7	2	3	+7	+3.3	23
6	Almeria	14	7	2	5	+3	+0.5	23
7	Sociedad	13	6	4	3	+3	+2.7	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+5	+0.8	21
9	Mallorca	13	6	3	4	+3	+1.2	21
10	Valencia	13	6	2	5	+8	+2.0	20
11	Ath Bilbao	13	6	2	5	+7	+0.7	20
12	Vallecano	13	5	5	3	+4	-0.1	20
13	Valladolid	13	6	2	5	-1	-0.2	20
14	Celta	13	5	4	4	+5	+2.7	19
15	Getafe	14	5	4	5	+0	-0.4	19
16	Osasuna	13	6	1	6	-2	-3.3	19
17	Sevilla	13	5	3	5	+0	+9.1	18
18	Cadiz	13	4	6	3	-3	+1.2	18
19	Espanol	13	3	4	6	-6	+2.3	13
20	Elche	13	1	4	8	-10	+1.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	11	0	2	+15	+1.8	33
2	Real Madrid	13	9	1	3	+14	+2.2	28
3	Ath Madrid	13	8	3	2	+9	+1.7	27
4	Sociedad	13	8	2	3	+8	-0.4	26
5	Betis	13	6	3	4	+1	+2.6	21
6	Villarreal	14	5	3	6	+1	-0.1	18
7	Ath Bilbao	13	4	4	5	+1	+0.6	16
8	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-3	-0.1	16
9	Osasuna	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.7	15
10	Celta	13	4	3	6	-8	-0.8	15
11	Espanol	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.6	14
12	Mallorca	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.7	11
13	Girona	13	2	4	7	-6	-4.0	10
14	Getafe	12	2	4	6	-7	+0.8	10
15	Sevilla	13	2	4	7	-13	-5.9	10
16	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-14	-4.4	10
17	Valladolid	13	2	2	9	-17	-7.7	8
18	Valencia	13	1	3	9	-11	-6.0	6
19	Elche	13	1	3	9	-22	-8.0	6
20	Almeria	12	0	3	9	-18	-3.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.