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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Ath Madrid

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Almeria

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 45%

61%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

36%

54%

Both score Ø 55%

46%

64%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,36 xG 0,17

65% Possession 35%

19 Shots 2

7 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 2

6 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Almeria 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	23	4	2	+44	+9.7	73
2	Real Madrid	29	19	5	5	+37	+17.2	62
3	Ath Madrid	28	17	6	5	+25	+9.8	57
4	Sociedad	29	15	6	8	+9	+3.2	51
5	Betis	29	14	6	9	+7	+2.7	48
6	Villarreal	29	14	5	10	+10	+3.9	47
7	Ath Bilbao	29	12	7	10	+11	+2.3	43
8	Vallecano	29	10	10	9	+1	-2.5	40
9	Girona	29	10	8	11	+2	-2.8	38
10	Osasuna	29	10	8	11	-5	-8.1	38
11	Celta	28	9	9	10	-3	+2.7	36
12	Mallorca	28	9	7	12	-5	-3.0	34
13	Sevilla	28	8	8	12	-11	+3.1	32
14	Valladolid	29	9	5	15	-23	-12.1	32
15	Getafe	29	7	10	12	-9	-2.9	31
16	Cadiz	29	7	10	12	-19	-4.4	31
17	Almeria	28	8	6	14	-14	-3.7	30
18	Valencia	28	7	6	15	-4	-2.6	27
19	Espanol	29	6	9	14	-14	-4.0	27
20	Elche	29	2	7	20	-39	-8.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	11	3	0	+25	+5.9	36
2	Real Madrid	14	9	4	1	+22	+13.1	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	8	3	3	+15	+6.8	27
4	Girona	15	8	3	4	+8	+1.9	27
5	Betis	15	8	3	4	+7	+1.2	27
6	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+8	+4.9	26
7	Almeria	15	8	2	5	+4	+0.5	26
8	Sociedad	14	7	4	3	+5	+4.8	25
9	Ath Bilbao	15	7	3	5	+9	+0.3	24
10	Vallecano	15	6	5	4	+4	-0.9	23
11	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.1	22
12	Osasuna	14	7	1	6	-1	-2.9	22
13	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+8	+3.5	21
14	Valladolid	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.7	21
15	Celta	14	5	5	4	+5	+3.5	20
16	Getafe	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.5	20
17	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	+0	+9.0	19
18	Cadiz	15	4	6	5	-7	-1.7	18
19	Espanol	14	3	4	7	-7	+0.8	13
20	Elche	14	1	4	9	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	1	2	+19	+3.8	37
2	Real Madrid	15	10	1	4	+15	+4.0	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	9	3	2	+10	+2.9	30
4	Sociedad	15	8	2	5	+4	-1.6	26
5	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	+2	-1.1	21
6	Betis	14	6	3	5	+0	+1.5	21
7	Ath Bilbao	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.0	19
8	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.6	17
9	Osasuna	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.2	16
10	Celta	14	4	4	6	-8	-0.8	16
11	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	-4.8	14
12	Sevilla	14	3	4	7	-11	-5.9	13
13	Cadiz	14	3	4	7	-12	-2.7	13
14	Mallorca	14	3	3	8	-8	-4.1	12
15	Girona	14	2	5	7	-6	-4.7	11
16	Getafe	14	2	5	7	-9	-1.4	11
17	Valladolid	15	3	2	10	-22	-11.3	11
18	Valencia	14	1	3	10	-12	-6.1	6
19	Elche	15	1	3	11	-25	-8.9	6
20	Almeria	13	0	4	9	-18	-4.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.