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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Ath Madrid
T S U S U
1–0
Full-time
Alaves
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Alaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,8
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-1,5
This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 45%
70%
19%
Points per game
2,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
41%
44%
Both score Ø 50%
44%
56%
Average goals
2,5
2,4
Scored
1,9
0,9
Conceded
0,7
1,6
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%
8 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 5
5 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 1. · Alaves 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ath Madrid 27 19 6 2 +32 63
2 Real Madrid 28 18 6 4 +26 60
3 Barcelona 27 18 5 4 +38 59
4 Sevilla 28 17 4 7 +18 55
5 Sociedad 27 12 9 6 +21 45
6 Betis 28 14 3 11 -3 45
7 Villarreal 28 10 13 5 +8 43
8 Granada 28 10 6 12 -12 36
9 Ath Bilbao 28 9 8 11 +6 35
10 Levante 28 8 11 9 -1 35
11 Celta 28 8 10 10 -8 34
12 Valencia 28 8 9 11 -4 33
13 Osasuna 28 7 9 12 -12 30
14 Getafe 28 7 8 13 -11 29
15 Cadiz 28 7 8 13 -20 29
16 Valladolid 28 5 12 11 -12 27
17 Elche 28 5 10 13 -17 25
18 Eibar 28 4 11 13 -11 23
19 Alaves 27 5 8 14 -20 23
20 Huesca 28 3 12 13 -18 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Alaves
José Giménez ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
13′
33′
🟨 Jota Peleteiro
Half-time 0–0
54′
🟨 Rubén Duarte
1–0 L. Suárez
K. Trippier
54′
59′
🔁 Luis Rioja
↦ Edgar Méndez
70′
🔁 A. Mahmoud
↦ Jota Peleteiro
70′
🔁 Alberto Rodríguez
↦ Laguardia
Saúl 🔁
↦ Á. Correa
74′
H. Herrera 🔁
↦ T. Lemar
74′
Yannick Carrasco 🟨
76′
79′
🔁 Borja Sainz
↦ Pere Pons
84′
ℹ️ Luis Rioja
VAR: Goal cancelled
Stefan Savić 🟨
85′
88′
🟨 Rodrigo Battaglia
Saúl Ñíguez 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-1-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
15 S. Savić D
23 K. Trippier M
2 J. Giménez D
22 Hermoso D
6 Koke M
21 Y. Carrasco M
11 T. Lemar M
14 Marcos Llorente M
9 L. Suárez F
10 Á. Correa F
Bench (10)
8 Saúl
16 H. Herrera
5 L. Torreira
12 Renan Lodi
24 Š. Vrsaljko
4 G. Kondogbia
18 Felipe
20 Vitolo
19 M. Dembélé
1 I. Grbić

Coach: D. Simeone

Alaves

4-1-4-1
1 Pacheco G
5 Laguardia D
22 F. Lejeune D
23 Ximo Navarro D
3 Rubén Duarte D
16 Edgar Méndez M
24 Jota Peleteiro M
6 R. Battaglia M
20 Pere Pons M
9 Joselu F
37 F. Pellistri M
Bench (10)
11 Luis Rioja
30 A. Mahmoud
2 Alberto Rodríguez
29 Borja Sainz
14 Deyverson
18 Burgui
21 Martín Aguirregabiria
13 Sivera
17 Iñigo Córdoba
26 Javi López

Coach: Abelardo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,35
U
4,65
B
10,69
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,29
U2,5 ✓
1,63
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.