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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martínez

Alaves

U T T S U

1–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 16/14 matches

Win Ø 52%

25%

79%

Points per game

1,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

31%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

50%

21%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

1,1

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

4 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 13. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	11	3	3	+15	36
2	Ath Madrid	14	11	2	1	+22	35
3	Sociedad	17	8	5	4	+14	29
4	Villarreal	17	7	8	2	+5	29
5	Sevilla	15	8	3	4	+7	27
6	Barcelona	15	7	4	4	+14	25
7	Granada	15	7	3	5	-4	24
8	Celta	17	6	5	6	-2	23
9	Ath Bilbao	17	6	3	8	+0	21
10	Betis	17	6	2	9	-11	20
11	Cadiz	16	5	4	7	-9	19
12	Levante	16	4	6	6	-2	18
13	Alaves	16	4	6	6	-4	18
14	Valladolid	17	4	6	7	-8	18
15	Getafe	16	4	5	7	-5	17
16	Eibar	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Elche	15	3	7	5	-5	16
18	Valencia	16	3	6	7	-2	15
19	Osasuna	15	3	4	8	-10	13
20	Huesca	16	1	9	6	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	Villarreal	9	5	4	0	+7	19
3	Barcelona	9	5	3	1	+11	18
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	+10	18
5	Granada	8	5	2	1	+5	17
6	Ath Bilbao	8	5	0	3	+6	15
7	Celta	8	5	0	3	+2	15
8	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+4	13
9	Sociedad	8	3	3	2	+5	12
10	Levante	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Getafe	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Betis	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Alaves	8	2	4	2	-1	10
14	Valencia	8	2	3	3	+1	9
15	Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-4	9
16	Elche	8	1	5	2	-3	8
17	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Huesca	7	1	4	2	-2	7
19	Cadiz	8	1	3	4	-6	6
20	Eibar	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	5	3	1	+5	18
2	Sociedad	9	5	2	2	+9	17
3	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Ath Madrid	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Cadiz	8	4	1	3	-3	13
6	Eibar	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Villarreal	8	2	4	2	-2	10
8	Valladolid	9	2	3	4	-4	9
9	Betis	9	3	0	6	-10	9
10	Elche	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Alaves	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Celta	9	1	5	3	-4	8
13	Barcelona	6	2	1	3	+3	7
14	Granada	7	2	1	4	-9	7
15	Valencia	8	1	3	4	-3	6
16	Levante	9	1	3	5	-5	6
17	Getafe	7	1	3	3	-5	6
18	Ath Bilbao	9	1	3	5	-6	6
19	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Huesca	9	0	5	4	-9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.