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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Paris SG
U S S U S
1–2
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
2,7
3,2
Conceded
1,2
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+2,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
5,3
4,7
Scored
4,3
4,0
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+3,3
+3,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,95 xG 1,53
71% Possession 29%
25 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
9 Corners 1
3 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Nov -24 Bayern Munich – Paris SG 1–0 8. Mar -23 Bayern Munich – Paris SG 2–0 14. Feb -23 Paris SG – Bayern Munich 0–1

Match report

Paris SG Bayern Munich
4′
⚽ L. Diaz 0–1
M. Olise
Ousmane Dembélé ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
24′
Lee Kang-In 🔁
↦ O. Dembele
25′
32′
⚽ L. Diaz 0–2
Half-time 0–2
46′
🔁 T. Bischof
↦ S. Gnabry
47′
🟨 Tom Bischof
49′
🟨 Manuel Neuer
50′
ℹ️ Luis Díaz
VAR: Card upgrade
52′
🟥 Luis Díaz
S. Mayulu 🔁
↦ A. Hakimi
52′
G. Ramos 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
66′
J. Neves 🔁
↦ F. Ruiz
66′
1–2 J. Neves ⚽
Lee Kang-In
74′
81′
🔁 Kim Min-Jae
↦ M. Olise
Nuno Mendes 🟨
84′
84′
🟨 Josip Stanišić
88′
🔁 L. Goretzka
↦ H. Kane
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
30 L. Chevalier G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
33 W. Zaire-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
8 F. Ruiz M
29 B. Barcola F
10 O. Dembele F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (10)
39 M. Safonov
89 R. Marin
4 L. Beraldo
9 G. Ramos
19 Lee Kang-In
21 L. Hernandez
24 S. Mayulu
47 Q. Ndjantou
49 I. Mbaye
87 J. Neves

Coach: Enrique Luis

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
4 J. Tah D
2 D. Upamecano D
44 J. Stanisic D
6 J. Kimmich M
45 A. Pavlovic M
17 M. Olise M
7 S. Gnabry M
14 L. Diaz M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
26 S. Ulreich
40 J. Urbig
3 Kim Min-Jae
8 L. Goretzka
11 N. Jackson
20 T. Bischof
22 R. Guerreiro
23 S. Boey
42 L. Karl

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.