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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

AVS

U T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Alverca

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 15%

29%

Points per game

0,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

2,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,42 xG 1,26

49% Possession 51%

5 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AVS 18. · Alverca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.6	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	+13.1	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
4	Gil Vicente	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.3	16
5	Moreirense	8	5	0	3	+1	-3.4	15
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+4	+2.0	12
7	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.8	10
8	Sp Braga	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.6	9
9	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-3	+2.0	8
10	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.1	8
11	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
12	Arouca	7	2	2	3	-9	-8.4	8
13	Estrela	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.6	7
14	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.1	7
15	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
16	Rio Ave	7	0	5	2	-5	-6.5	5
17	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.6	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-13	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
4	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
6	Alverca	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.4	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
8	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
10	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
13	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
14	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	+0.2	3
15	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
16	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
5	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
6	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
7	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
8	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
12	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
13	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
14	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.4	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
17	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.