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Champions League
Referee: S Schärer
Lille
S S T U S
1–2
Full-time
Dortmund
U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/11 matches
Win Ø 55%
54%
55%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
54%
73%
Both score Ø 66%
77%
55%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,8
2,4
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,48 xG 3,05
50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Mar -25 Dortmund – Lille 1–1

Match report

Lille Dortmund
1–0 J. David ⚽
Ismaily
5′
32′
🟨 Waldemar Anton
Half-time 1–0
51′
🟨 Pascal Groß
Thomas Meunier 🟨
52′
54′
⚽ E. Can 1–1
65′
⚽ M. Beier 1–2
S. Guirassy
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ R. Cabella
67′
G. Gudmundsson 🔁
↦ Ismaily
67′
72′
🔁 R. Bensebaini
↦ W. Anton
M. Fernandez-Pardo 🔁
↦ A. Bouaddi
74′
79′
🔁 J. Gittens
↦ K. Adeyemi
Ngal'ayel Mukau 🟨
83′
André Gomes 🔁
↦ N. Mukau
83′
O. Sahraoui 🔁
↦ H. Haraldsson
83′
85′
🔁 G. Reyna
↦ M. Beier
85′
🔁 C. Chukwuemeka
↦ J. Brandt
86′
🔁 S. Özcan
↦ P. Groß
89′
🟨 Ramy Bensebaini
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
12 T. Meunier D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
31 Ismaily D
21 B. André M
32 A. Bouaddi M
10 R. Cabella M
17 N. Mukau M
7 H. Haraldsson M
9 J. David F
Bench (12)
24 C. Akpom
5 G. Gudmundsson
19 M. Fernandez-Pardo
26 André Gomes
11 O. Sahraoui
1 V. Mannone
29 E. Mbappé
2 A. Mandi
8 A. Gomes
16 M. Caillard
20 M. Bakker
35 I. Cossier

Coach: B. Génésio

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
3 W. Anton D
23 E. Can D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
26 J. Ryerson D
20 M. Sabitzer M
13 P. Groß M
27 K. Adeyemi M
10 J. Brandt M
14 M. Beier M
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (12)
5 R. Bensebaini
43 J. Gittens
7 G. Reyna
17 C. Chukwuemeka
6 S. Özcan
16 J. Duranville
34 R. Lisewski
33 A. Meyer
38 K. Wätjen
25 N. Süle
42 A. Kabar
2 Yan Couto

Coach: N. Kovač

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Schärer · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.