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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Cardiff

T S U U U

0–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 23%

22%

24%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

46%

39%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

51%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,52 xG 1,04

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 22. · Stoke 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	42	25	13	4	+53	+49.5	88
2	Burnley	42	24	16	2	+44	+16.0	88
3	Sheffield United	39	24	6	9	+22	+14.5	78
4	Sunderland	38	21	12	5	+24	+13.7	75
5	Bristol City	39	16	14	9	+10	+3.7	62
6	Middlesbrough	41	17	9	15	+11	+12.3	60
7	Coventry	39	17	7	15	+2	+17.4	58
8	West Brom	41	13	18	10	+11	+11.0	57
9	Millwall	41	15	12	14	-1	+1.1	57
10	Watford	41	16	8	17	-4	-6.2	56
11	Norwich	42	13	14	15	+5	+10.9	53
12	Blackburn	41	15	8	18	-1	-1.7	53
13	Sheffield Weds	41	14	11	16	-7	-2.4	53
14	Swansea	41	14	9	18	-7	-0.8	51
15	QPR	41	12	13	16	-6	-6.1	49
16	Preston	42	10	19	13	-8	-5.0	49
17	Portsmouth	41	12	9	20	-16	-14.4	45
18	Oxford	41	11	12	18	-18	-24.4	45
19	Hull	41	11	11	19	-9	-5.7	44
20	Stoke	41	10	14	17	-12	-15.1	44
21	Derby	41	11	9	21	-10	-7.2	42
22	Cardiff	41	9	15	17	-20	-15.4	42
23	Luton	41	10	10	21	-25	-7.3	40
24	Plymouth	42	9	13	20	-38	-38.5	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	16	4	1	+39	+31.7	52
2	Burnley	21	12	9	0	+24	+10.1	45
3	Sunderland	19	12	6	1	+17	+13.9	42
4	Bristol City	20	12	6	2	+16	+7.7	42
5	Sheffield United	19	13	2	4	+13	+14.4	41
6	Watford	21	12	3	6	+6	+0.5	39
7	Coventry	20	11	3	6	+9	+10.5	36
8	Norwich	21	9	8	4	+18	+12.6	35
9	West Brom	20	9	8	3	+12	+10.6	35
10	Portsmouth	20	10	5	5	+11	+3.1	35
11	Middlesbrough	21	10	5	6	+7	+8.2	35
12	Oxford	21	10	5	6	+1	-6.1	35
13	Blackburn	21	10	4	7	+7	+5.7	34
14	Preston	21	7	12	2	+6	+6.1	33
15	Swansea	21	9	5	7	+8	+8.8	32
16	Derby	21	9	4	8	+8	+2.1	31
17	Millwall	20	9	4	7	+4	+7.0	31
18	Plymouth	21	8	7	6	+0	-5.9	31
19	Stoke	21	7	9	5	+4	-4.1	30
20	QPR	20	7	7	6	+3	+3.3	28
21	Luton	20	7	7	6	+1	+6.9	28
22	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	-2	-0.9	25
23	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-2	+4.2	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	21	12	7	2	+20	+5.9	43
2	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+9	+0.1	37
3	Leeds	21	9	9	3	+14	+17.8	36
4	Sunderland	19	9	6	4	+7	-0.2	33
5	Sheffield Weds	21	9	4	8	-5	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	21	6	8	7	-5	-5.8	26
7	Middlesbrough	20	7	4	9	+4	+4.1	25
8	Hull	21	7	4	10	-5	-10.1	25
9	West Brom	21	4	10	7	-1	+0.4	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	QPR	21	5	6	10	-9	-9.4	21
12	Bristol City	19	4	8	7	-6	-4.0	20
13	Blackburn	20	5	4	11	-8	-7.3	19
14	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-15	-9.7	19
15	Norwich	21	4	6	11	-13	-1.7	18
16	Watford	20	4	5	11	-10	-6.7	17
17	Cardiff	21	2	11	8	-18	-14.5	17
18	Preston	21	3	7	11	-14	-11.1	16
19	Stoke	20	3	5	12	-16	-11.1	14
20	Luton	21	3	3	15	-26	-14.2	12
21	Derby	20	2	5	13	-18	-9.4	11
22	Oxford	20	1	7	12	-19	-18.3	10
23	Portsmouth	21	2	4	15	-27	-17.6	10
24	Plymouth	21	1	6	14	-38	-32.6	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.