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Eredivisie
Referee: A Lindhout
PSV Eindhoven
S U S T S
5–0
Full-time
Almere City
T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Almere City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,2
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 41%
68%
14%
Points per game
2,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
82%
46%
Both score Ø 50%
64%
36%
Average goals
4,1
2,6
Scored
2,9
0,7
Conceded
1,2
1,9
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

4,96 xG 0,74
72% Possession 28%
34 Shots 8
17 Shots on target 2
11 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 12
11 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
6 Free kicks against 6
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 2. · Almere City 18.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ajax 28 22 4 2 +39 +26.9 70
2 PSV Eindhoven 28 19 4 5 +48 +34.9 61
3 Feyenoord 29 17 8 4 +32 +24.2 59
4 Utrecht 28 15 8 5 +9 +2.3 53
5 Go Ahead Eagles 28 13 6 9 +6 +11.2 45
6 Twente 26 12 8 6 +13 +14.8 44
7 AZ Alkmaar 26 11 7 8 +6 +11.1 40
8 Sparta Rotterdam 29 8 10 11 -3 +2.0 34
9 Heerenveen 28 9 7 12 -8 -2.4 34
10 Nijmegen 28 9 6 13 +1 +1.4 33
11 For Sittard 29 9 6 14 -16 -7.4 33
12 Heracles 28 7 11 10 -13 -14.8 32
13 Groningen 28 8 8 12 -14 -9.7 32
14 Zwolle 28 7 9 12 -9 -22.3 30
15 NAC Breda 28 8 6 14 -18 -16.0 30
16 Willem II 28 6 6 16 -18 -23.3 24
17 Waalwijk 29 4 7 18 -23 -19.3 19
18 Almere City 28 4 7 17 -32 -13.6 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,13
U
8,82
B
16,70
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,24
U2,5
3,75
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Lindhout · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.