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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Juventus

S T T S U

2–1

Full-time

Lecce

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 32%

45%

19%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

45%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

45%

39%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,56 xG 1,31

66% Possession 34%

22 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 5. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	32	21	8	3	+41	+31.7	71
2	Napoli	31	19	8	4	+23	+18.1	65
3	Atalanta	31	17	7	7	+33	+22.2	58
4	Bologna	31	15	12	4	+16	+12.2	57
5	Juventus	31	14	14	3	+18	+12.8	56
6	Lazio	31	16	7	8	+10	+12.4	55
7	Roma	31	15	8	8	+15	+11.6	53
8	Fiorentina	31	15	7	9	+17	+4.5	52
9	Milan	32	14	9	9	+14	+20.2	51
10	Torino	31	9	13	9	+0	-14.4	40
11	Udinese	32	11	7	14	-10	-9.2	40
12	Genoa	31	9	11	11	-9	-6.6	38
13	Como	31	8	9	14	-9	+2.0	33
14	Verona	31	9	4	18	-29	-17.0	31
15	Cagliari	32	7	9	16	-15	-11.7	30
16	Parma	31	5	12	14	-14	-14.9	27
17	Lecce	31	6	8	17	-28	-21.0	26
18	Venezia	32	4	12	16	-19	-17.8	24
19	Empoli	31	4	12	15	-23	-14.9	24
20	Monza	32	2	9	21	-31	-20.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	3	1	+19	+15.6	39
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+12	+14.1	35
3	Bologna	16	9	6	1	+16	+14.6	33
4	Fiorentina	16	10	3	3	+12	+7.8	33
5	Roma	16	10	2	4	+18	+9.5	32
6	Juventus	16	8	7	1	+11	+8.4	31
7	Milan	16	7	7	2	+11	+10.6	28
8	Lazio	15	7	6	2	+8	+9.2	27
9	Atalanta	15	7	4	4	+10	+10.0	25
10	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-3	-4.0	23
11	Genoa	16	5	7	4	+0	-1.5	22
12	Torino	15	5	6	4	+1	-6.3	21
13	Como	15	5	5	5	+0	+2.0	20
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-5	-1.3	19
15	Parma	16	4	5	7	-3	-2.7	17
16	Venezia	16	4	5	7	-3	-2.0	17
17	Lecce	16	3	6	7	-15	-7.7	15
18	Verona	15	4	2	9	-19	-5.4	14
19	Empoli	15	1	6	8	-15	-7.2	9
20	Monza	16	1	5	10	-11	-6.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	10	3	3	+23	+12.2	33
2	Inter	16	9	5	2	+22	+16.0	32
3	Napoli	16	8	6	2	+11	+4.0	30
4	Lazio	16	9	1	6	+2	+3.2	28
5	Juventus	15	6	7	2	+7	+4.4	25
6	Bologna	15	6	6	3	+0	-2.4	24
7	Milan	16	7	2	7	+3	+9.6	23
8	Roma	15	5	6	4	-3	+2.1	21
9	Fiorentina	15	5	4	6	+5	-3.4	19
10	Torino	16	4	7	5	-1	-8.1	19
11	Udinese	16	4	5	7	-7	-5.2	17
12	Verona	16	5	2	9	-10	-11.6	17
13	Genoa	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.1	16
14	Empoli	16	3	6	7	-8	-7.8	15
15	Como	16	3	4	9	-9	+0.0	13
16	Cagliari	16	2	5	9	-10	-10.4	11
17	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-13	-13.3	11
18	Parma	15	1	7	7	-11	-12.2	10
19	Venezia	16	0	7	9	-16	-15.8	7
20	Monza	16	1	4	11	-20	-14.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.