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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

St Pauli

S S T T T

0–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,35 xG 0,66

31% Possession 69%

15 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 18. · RB Leipzig 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	+7.1	12
2	Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+4	+6.3	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+4.2	9
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.6	9
5	Union Berlin	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.2	8
6	Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.2	7
7	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
8	Dortmund	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.2	7
9	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.2	6
10	Mainz	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.2	5
11	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-4	-1.9	5
12	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.0	4
13	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-1	-2.4	3
14	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
15	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.3	3
16	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-4	-5.5	1
17	Holstein Kiel	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.3	1
18	St Pauli	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+4.1	6
4	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
6	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
8	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
12	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
13	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
15	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
16	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
3	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
4	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
5	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
6	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
8	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
10	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
12	Union Berlin	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
13	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
14	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
15	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.