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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Augsburg

T T S U T

3–1

Full-time

St Pauli

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

3,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,61 xG 0,52

43% Possession 57%

18 Shots 12

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Augsburg 15. · St Pauli 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
5	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+3	+5.1	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+3.5	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.8	6
8	Union Berlin	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
9	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.2	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.5	3
13	Mainz	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
15	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
16	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+4.1	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
4	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
5	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
7	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
9	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
15	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
16	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.4	6
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
3	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
6	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
9	Union Berlin	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
13	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
14	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
15	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
16	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
17	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.