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Bundesliga
Referee: T Stieler
Union Berlin
T S T S S
4–1
Full-time
Mainz
T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
1,2
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,91 xG 2,30
46% Possession 54%
12 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Feb -23 Union Berlin – Mainz 2–1 14. Aug -22 Mainz – Union Berlin 0–0 26. Feb -22 Union Berlin – Mainz 3–1 3. Oct -21 Mainz – Union Berlin 1–2 6. Feb -21 Mainz – Union Berlin 1–0

Match report

Union Berlin Mainz
1–0 K. Behrens ⚽
J. Roussillon
1′
2–0 K. Behrens ⚽
A. Laïdouni
9′
Kevin Behrens 🟨
10′
31′
🟨 Jae-Sung Lee
Half-time 2–0
51′
🟨 Dominik Kohr
58′
🟨 Danny da Costa
60′
🔁 B. Gruda
↦ K. Onisiwo
60′
🔁 S. van den Berg
↦ D. Kohr
64′
⚽ A. Caci 2–1
S. Becker 🔁
↦ D. Fofana
66′
R. Gosens 🔁
↦ J. Roussillon
66′
3–1 K. Behrens ⚽
S. Becker
70′
75′
🔁 A. Barkok
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
M. Pantović 🔁
↦ B. Aaronson
76′
80′
🟨 Leandro Barreiro
81′
🔁 N. Weiper
↦ D. da Costa
81′
🔁 T. Krauß
↦ A. Stach
87′
ℹ️ Ludovic Ajorque
VAR: Penalty confirmed
A. Kemlein 🔁
↦ A. Laïdouni
89′
K. Volland 🔁
↦ K. Behrens
89′
92′
🟨 Sepp van den Berg
4–1 M. Pantović ⚽
K. Volland
96′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Union Berlin

5-3-2
1 F. Rønnow G
28 C. Trimmel D
5 D. Doekhi D
31 R. Knoche D
4 Diogo Leite D
26 J. Roussillon D
20 A. Laïdouni M
33 A. Král M
7 B. Aaronson M
11 D. Fofana F
17 K. Behrens F
Bench (9)
27 S. Becker
6 R. Gosens
32 M. Pantović
36 A. Kemlein
10 K. Volland
3 P. Jaeckel
45 J. Siebatcheu
18 J. Juranović
37 A. Schwolow

Coach: U. Fischer

Mainz

3-4-2-1
27 R. Zentner G
31 D. Kohr D
16 S. Bell D
20 E. Fernandes D
21 D. da Costa M
8 L. Barreiro M
6 A. Stach M
19 A. Caci M
9 K. Onisiwo F
7 Lee Jae-Sung F
17 L. Ajorque F
Bench (9)
43 B. Gruda
3 S. van den Berg
4 A. Barkok
44 N. Weiper
14 T. Krauß
1 L. Rieß
45 D. Mamutovic
5 M. Leitsch
24 M. Papela

Coach: B. Svensson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,01
🔒
U
3,45
🔒
B
3,92
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,10
🔒
U2,5
1,75
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.