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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Union Berlin

S S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Mainz

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 41%

39%

43%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Union Berlin 9. · Mainz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	18	1	4	+48	55
2	Dortmund	23	16	1	6	+27	49
3	Leverkusen	23	12	5	6	+21	41
4	Hoffenheim	24	12	4	8	+11	40
5	RB Leipzig	23	11	4	8	+21	37
6	Freiburg	23	10	7	6	+10	37
7	FC Koln	23	9	8	6	-2	35
8	Mainz	23	10	4	9	+8	34
9	Union Berlin	23	9	7	7	-2	34
10	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	7	8	-2	31
11	Bochum	23	8	5	10	-8	29
12	Wolfsburg	23	8	3	12	-11	27
13	M'gladbach	23	7	5	11	-16	26
14	Bielefeld	23	5	10	8	-7	25
15	Hertha	23	6	5	12	-26	23
16	Augsburg	23	5	7	11	-15	22
17	Stuttgart	24	4	7	13	-17	19
18	Greuther Furth	23	3	4	16	-40	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	0	2	+26	30
2	Dortmund	12	10	0	2	+21	30
3	RB Leipzig	12	9	0	3	+20	27
4	Mainz	12	8	3	1	+17	27
5	Hoffenheim	12	8	2	2	+14	26
6	FC Koln	12	7	3	2	+5	24
7	Bochum	11	6	3	2	+7	21
8	Union Berlin	11	6	3	2	+2	21
9	Leverkusen	11	6	2	3	+11	20
10	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+6	19
11	M'gladbach	11	5	2	4	+0	17
12	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	Hertha	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Wolfsburg	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-1	13
16	Bielefeld	12	2	7	3	-4	13
17	Stuttgart	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	-6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	1	2	+22	25
2	Leverkusen	12	6	3	3	+10	21
3	Dortmund	11	6	1	4	+6	19
4	Freiburg	12	5	3	4	+4	18
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	-1	18
6	Hoffenheim	12	4	2	6	-3	14
7	Union Berlin	12	3	4	5	-4	13
8	Wolfsburg	11	4	1	6	-7	13
9	Bielefeld	11	3	3	5	-3	12
10	FC Koln	11	2	5	4	-7	11
11	RB Leipzig	11	2	4	5	+1	10
12	M'gladbach	12	2	3	7	-16	9
13	Bochum	12	2	2	8	-15	8
14	Hertha	11	2	2	7	-19	8
15	Mainz	11	2	1	8	-9	7
16	Stuttgart	12	1	4	7	-12	7
17	Augsburg	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Greuther Furth	12	0	1	11	-34	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.