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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Le Havre

T T U S U

1–2

Full-time

Brest

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

5,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,25 xG 1,09

56% Possession 44%

18 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Le Havre 10. · Brest 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Montpellier	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
3	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
4	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.7	4
5	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.9	3
6	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
7	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
8	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
9	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
10	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
13	Metz	2	0	1	1	-4	-5.4	1
14	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
15	Reims	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
17	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
18	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.9	3
2	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
3	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
4	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
6	Montpellier	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Metz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
8	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
10	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
12	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
13	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
4	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
5	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
6	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
7	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
8	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
9	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
10	Reims	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
11	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
12	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
13	Metz	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.