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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Mainz

S U U S T

2–3

Full-time

Schalke 04

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

60%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,42 xG 3,22

57% Possession 43%

9 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 8. · Schalke 04 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	18	8	4	+48	+12.1	62
2	Dortmund	30	19	4	7	+27	+12.3	61
3	Union Berlin	30	16	8	6	+13	-3.7	56
4	Freiburg	30	16	8	6	+9	-4.6	56
5	RB Leipzig	30	16	6	8	+17	+9.6	54
6	Leverkusen	30	14	6	10	+12	+9.1	48
7	Wolfsburg	30	12	10	8	+17	+7.5	46
8	Mainz	30	12	9	9	+6	+1.6	45
9	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	10	9	+4	-0.9	43
10	M'gladbach	30	9	9	12	-4	-3.6	36
11	FC Koln	30	8	11	11	-8	+1.4	35
12	Werder Bremen	30	10	5	15	-10	-5.1	35
13	Augsburg	30	8	7	15	-16	-8.5	31
14	Hoffenheim	30	8	5	17	-12	-5.1	29
15	Stuttgart	30	6	10	14	-14	+0.8	28
16	Bochum	30	8	4	18	-34	-8.5	28
17	Schalke 04	30	6	9	15	-29	-4.0	27
18	Hertha	30	5	7	18	-26	-10.3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	12	1	1	+29	+7.6	37
2	Bayern Munich	15	10	5	0	+32	+12.5	35
3	RB Leipzig	15	11	2	2	+17	+0.3	35
4	Union Berlin	15	9	6	0	+16	-0.5	33
5	Freiburg	15	9	4	2	+14	-0.7	31
6	M'gladbach	15	8	3	4	+11	+3.3	27
7	Leverkusen	15	8	2	5	+13	+4.8	26
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	5	3	+13	+5.2	26
9	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+10	+1.6	24
10	Wolfsburg	15	5	7	3	+9	+5.6	22
11	FC Koln	15	5	5	5	+6	+3.7	20
12	Bochum	15	6	2	7	-8	-2.1	20
13	Stuttgart	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.9	19
14	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-6	-2.7	19
15	Schalke 04	16	5	4	7	-13	-1.8	19
16	Hertha	15	4	5	6	-4	-2.1	17
17	Hoffenheim	15	5	2	8	-5	+1.8	17
18	Werder Bremen	15	5	1	9	-1	+1.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	8	3	4	+16	-0.4	27
2	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	-5	-4.0	25
3	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	+1.8	24
4	Dortmund	16	7	3	6	-2	+4.7	24
5	Union Berlin	15	7	2	6	-3	-3.2	23
6	Leverkusen	15	6	4	5	-1	+4.2	22
7	Mainz	15	6	3	6	-4	-0.0	21
8	RB Leipzig	15	5	4	6	+0	+9.3	19
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-9	-6.5	19
10	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-9	-6.2	17
11	FC Koln	15	3	6	6	-14	-2.2	15
12	Hoffenheim	15	3	3	9	-7	-6.8	12
13	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-10	-5.8	12
14	Stuttgart	15	1	6	8	-15	-1.1	9
15	M'gladbach	15	1	6	8	-15	-6.9	9
16	Schalke 04	14	1	5	8	-16	-2.1	8
17	Bochum	15	2	2	11	-26	-6.4	8
18	Hertha	15	1	2	12	-22	-8.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.